Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Surrozen Inc (SRZN)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$29.00-8.37%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SRZN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS improves toward breakeven | A primary condition in Surrozen Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS improves to > -1.0 next 4 quarters. | Improving | EPS remains below -1.0 next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative clinical-stage biotechnology business, not an established earnings compounder. The SZN-8141 IND clearance is tangible progress, but the broader clinical work is still ahead and the current thesis state is watch.
The available valuation model indicates SRZN is expensive versus peers, with expectations partly tied to pipeline optionality, meaning potential value from future development. The expectations gap is elevated, but confidence in that reading is low, and the evidence does not show the full combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence as already priced in.
Near term, funding for planned studies has improved: the October financing raised gross proceeds of $95.1 million, and management expects runway into 2029. SZN-8141 received FDA IND clearance on October 2, while starting clinical studies remains a plan; the company remains loss-making, and recent earnings have been erratic despite an October 20 reported beat. The next-quarter miss risk is elevated, and confidence in the overall evidence has fallen to low.
Over the multi-year view, the central question is whether SRZN can turn pipeline milestones into sustained clinical progress while maintaining funding through planned studies. Near-term sector support could help if VRTX, REGN, and MRNA keep reporting strong results, while weaker jobs data or deteriorating results from those companies could weaken the sector backdrop.
SRZN has made a meaningful development and funding step, but its long-term thesis remains speculative because it is loss-making, clinical progress is still developing, and the evidence is low confidence. The 1-to-3-year view hinges on study execution, continued funding, and the sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Surrozen Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Positive clinical trial results or regulatory milestones in next 12 months. |
| Intact |
| Failure to achieve key clinical or regulatory milestones in 12 months |
Qualitative: FDA IND clearance achieved FDA cleared SZN-8141 IND; $95.1M financing closed; earnings beat in Oct 2026. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth stabilizes or improves | A supporting condition in Surrozen Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth >= 0% FY27. | Intact | Revenue declines below $3.5M FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-4.05 → $-3.61 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-4.05 | $869,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-4.05 | $869,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-4.05 | $869,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-4.05 | $869,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-4.05 | $869,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-4.05 | $869,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-4.05 | $869,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-3.98 | $3,477,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-4.05 | $869,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-3.98 | $3,477,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-4.05 | $869,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-3.98 | $3,477,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-4.05 | $869,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-3.98 | $3,477,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-4.05 | $869,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-3.98 | $1,159,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-3.98 | $1,159,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-4.05 | $869,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-4.05 | $869,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-4.05 | $869,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-4.05 | $869,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-4.05 | $869,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-4.05 | $869,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-4.05 | $869,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-4.05 | $869,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-3.65 | $1,869,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-3.61 | $1,869,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-3.61 | $1,869,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-3.61 | $1,869,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-3.61 | $1,869,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-3.61 | $1,869,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-3.61 | $1,869,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-3.61 | $1,869,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-3.61 | $1,869,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-3.61 | $1,869,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-3.61 | $1,869,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-3.61 | $1,869,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-3.61 | $1,869,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-3.61 | $1,869,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-3.61 | $1,869,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-3.61 | $1,869,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-3.61 | $1,869,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-3.61 | $1,869,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-3.61 | $1,869,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-3.61 | $1,869,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-3.61 | $1,869,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-3.61 | $1,495,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-3.61 | $1,495,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-3.61 | $1,495,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-3.61 | $1,495,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-3.61 | $1,495,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-3.61 | $1,495,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-3.61 | $1,495,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-3.61 | $1,495,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-3.61 | $1,495,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-3.61 | $1,495,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-3.61 | $1,495,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-3.61 | $1,495,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-3.61 | $1,495,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-3.61 | $1,495,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-3.61 | $1,495,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-3.61 | $1,495,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-3.61 | $1,500,000 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.