Surrozen Inc (SRZN)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$22.76+0.98%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SRZN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 153.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -74.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 227.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SRZN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition” (including the exhibit referenced herein) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
Why it matters: Good early data would show SZN-8141 could help treat eye diseases. This might bring more interest and money.
Supportive ifSurrozen will share good early data on SZN-8141 at upcoming science meetings.
Worry ifPreclinical data does not support the efficacy claims for SZN-8141.
Why it matters: More money from this partnership shows SZN-413 is developing well. This may help the company’s finances.
Supportive ifRevenue from Boehringer Ingelheim is over $5.0 million in the next few quarters.
Worry ifRevenue from Boehringer Ingelheim stays the same or goes down.
Why it matters: Having a lot of cash helps keep the company running and developing. A big drop could worry investors.
Watch forCash and cash equivalents rise from $106.9 million in Q1 2026 by the next earnings report.
Also watch forCash and cash equivalents fall from $106.9 million in Q1 2026 by the next earnings report.
Why it matters: If sector growth slows, it could hurt Surrozen's performance and outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth has been below its median for two quarters in a row.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$196 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $690 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,374 loss on $10,000 · 43.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: R&D spending is crucial for growth. A drop could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifR&D spending drops below 20% of revenue.
Less concerning ifR&D spending remains above 24% of revenue.
Why it matters: Good preclinical data may help these therapies for retinal diseases. It could bring more interest.
Supportive ifThe company shows good preclinical data for SZN-8141 and SZN-8143 at industry events.
Worry ifThe company shows bad or unclear preclinical data for SZN-8141 and SZN-8143.
Why it matters: The health care sector is maturing. If revenue growth speeds up, it could help Surrozen's outlook.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is now close to 12% or higher each year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 9% year over year.
Why it matters: The upcoming earnings results will show if the company can recover from its recent earnings miss. Investors will look for signs of improvement.
Worry ifEarnings results show revenue growth of at least 5% compared to last quarter.
Less concerning ifEarnings results show revenue decline or flat growth compared to last quarter.
Why it matters: Submitting the IND application is a key step for SZN-8141's development. It shows progress in Surrozen's pipeline.
Supportive ifThe IND application for SZN-8141 is submitted by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe IND application is not submitted by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Starting this study is crucial for SZN-8141's clinical development. It will provide early data on its effectiveness.
Supportive ifThe DUET Phase 1b/2a study for SZN-8141 is initiated by the end of 2026.
Worry ifThe DUET study is not initiated by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: A big drop in cash could hurt Surrozen's ability to run its business.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents remain above $100 million.
Less concerning ifCash and cash equivalents fall below $100 million.