Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
System1 Inc (SST)
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.76-0.56%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve operating cash flow and manage capital prudently | They focus on better cash flow and careful spending. | Improving | operating cash flow worsens beyond -$26.1M over next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $-28.169M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating cash flow improves from -$26.1M toward less negative. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 2026-28,169,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative turnaround with high risk, not a proven durable compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: the signal has shifted from cautious to mixed, but recent performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
SST is assessed as cheap versus peers, though the valuation model has low confidence and the expectations gap is negative. The priced-in assessment is marked justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually concentrated market expectations.
Near term, results may remain uneven: revenue fell from $37.2 million in Q1 to $30.2 million in Q2, while the operating loss narrowed, partly because Q1 included a large impairment charge. Management has delivered on debt reduction and extended maturities, but product growth is not yet showing in the reported revenue trend; a COO transition and erratic earnings add uncertainty into the next report.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on whether AI-focused products and consumer intent can turn into sustained revenue growth while cost and Partner Network efficiency work continues. Near term, sector bellwethers and jobs data matter: stronger earnings and guidance could support the sector backdrop, while weaker reports or continued jobs deterioration could weigh on cyclical businesses like SST.
SST has made meaningful progress on its capital structure, but the multi-year thesis remains unproven because revenue is declining and losses persist. The key test is whether product execution and efficiency gains can produce steadier fundamentals amid sector and employment risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| System1 aims to stop losses and improve profits. |
| Broken |
| net losses worsen beyond -$47.1M over next 4 quarters |
Net income: $-12.599M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net losses improve to less negative than -$47.1M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 2026-12,599,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize and grow revenue from recent steep decline | A primary condition in System1 Inc's published investment case. The stated target is revenue stabilizes above $37M and grows over next 4 quarters. | Broken | revenue falls below $37M over next 4 quarters | Revenue: $30.2M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: revenue stabilizes above $37M and grows over next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 202630,200,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Unavailable → $-1.08 · observed estimates
Unavailable → $0.16B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.40 | $581,507,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.40 | $581,507,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.40 | $581,507,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.40 | $581,507,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.40 | $581,507,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.40 | $581,507,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.40 | $581,507,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.40 | $581,507,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.40 | $581,507,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.40 | $581,507,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.40 | $581,507,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.40 | $581,507,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.40 | $581,507,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.40 | $581,507,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.40 | $581,507,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.08 | $159,559,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.