System1 Inc (SST)
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.83+1.86%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -90.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -9.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 80.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SST — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-24
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on May 29, 2026, S1 Holdings Finco, LLC and Orchid Merger Sub II, LLC, each a subsidiary of the Company, entered into an Exchange Agreement with the participating lenders under the Company’s existing credit facility, the existing agent under the Company’s existing credit agreement and the priority agent under the Company’s Priority Credit Agreement (as defined in Company’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the SEC on June 1, 2026), providing for a co…
Why it matters: A high adjusted gross margin means better profits. It also shows more efficiency in the Products business.
Supportive ifAdjusted gross margin remains above 80% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted gross margin falls below 80% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Good news on cash flow means better use of money. This is key for finances.
Watch forManagement has a plan to improve cash flow. They aim to reduce negative cash flow below -26.1M.
Also watch forManagement reports cash flow is getting worse. It is now over -26.1M in negative cash flow.
Why it matters: More revenue shows that management is focusing on AI and what consumers want.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue exceeds $37.2 million, the amount reported for Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue falls below $37.2 million.
Why it matters: Closing this deal will cut total debt by over $160 million. This will help with financial flexibility.
Supportive ifThe deal closes with shareholder approval before the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe transaction fails to close or is delayed beyond Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$365 on $10,000 · ±3.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,189 loss on $10,000 · 11.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,464 loss on $10,000 · 84.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Approval is needed to complete the debt exchange. This will lower total debt by over $160 million.
Supportive ifShareholder approval granted for the debt exchange transaction by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifShareholder approval is denied or delayed past Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More users show strong interest in new AI products. This helps revenue recovery.
Supportive ifStartpage.com user sessions grow year-over-year by more than 31% and MapQuest traffic continues to rise.
Worry ifUser growth metrics for Startpage and MapQuest decline or stagnate.
Why it matters: Stabilizing revenue is important after a big drop from $78.1 million to $30.2 million in Q2.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue shows a year-over-year increase or stays above $30 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue keeps dropping year-over-year or stays below $30 million.
Why it matters: A decline in revenue shows that the company is not stabilizing its top line. This could signal deeper issues in the business.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $37.2M, continuing the downward trend.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue stabilizes or grows above $37.2M.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the business. This would be important as the sector is currently maturing and slowing down.
Supportive ifRevenue growth is speeding up again. This shows stronger demand.
Worry ifRevenue growth keeps slowing down or stays flat. This shows ongoing weakness.