Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-02 · fmp
STAAR Surgical Company (STAA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$27.17+7.95%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.55 → 0.55 EPS · FY ending Jan 2, 2028 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for STAA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net income remains positive at $5.2M in Q1 2026 | Net income turned positive at $5.2M, showing a strong recovery. | Intact | Net income falls below $5.2M in 2026-Q1 | Net income: $5.575M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.2M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20265,575,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-02 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business with recent strong financial performance, rather than an established, steady compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, but management execution is rated volatile and product development progress is mixed.
Valuation is expensive versus peers, with a modest expectations gap and no flagged signs of fragility. The valuation model views the premium as justified, so the setup depends on continued delivery rather than a clear discount to expectations.
Near term, revenue growth and profitability have improved: second-quarter revenue more than doubled year over year, and operating income and net income moved from losses to profits over the cited periods. A guidance cut, uneven earnings surprises, and the recent CEO transition remain risks; the evidence on the transition’s effects is limited.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether growth in key markets continues and margins keep expanding, while product innovation progresses beyond early signs. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would be unfavorable; continued strong results and guidance from healthcare peers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, STAA’s long-term thesis rests on sustaining fast growth and improving profitability despite elevated execution risk and an expensive valuation versus peers. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income improved from -$57.4M to $8.0M in the same period. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $8.0M in 2026-Q1 |
Operating income: $5.459M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $8.0M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20265,459,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $93.5M in Q1 2026 | A primary condition in STAAR Surgical Company's published investment case. The stated target is >= $93.5M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $93.5M in 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $83.411M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $93.5M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 202683,411,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.96 → $0.55 · observed estimates
$0.36B → $0.36B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.96 | $362,969,293 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.96 | $362,969,293 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.96 | $362,969,293 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.96 | $362,969,293 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.96 | $362,969,293 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.96 | $362,969,293 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.96 | $362,969,293 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.96 | $361,998,413 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.96 | $361,998,413 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.96 | $361,998,413 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.96 | $361,998,413 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.96 | $361,998,413 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.96 | $361,998,413 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.96 | $361,998,413 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.96 | $361,998,413 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.96 | $361,998,413 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.96 | $361,998,413 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.96 | $361,998,413 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.96 | $361,998,413 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.96 | $361,998,413 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.96 | $361,998,413 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.96 | $361,998,413 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.96 | $361,998,413 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.96 | $361,998,413 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.96 | $361,998,413 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.54 | $363,611,342 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.54 | $363,609,724 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.54 | $363,182,451 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.54 | $363,182,451 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.54 | $363,182,451 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.54 | $363,182,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.54 | $363,182,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.54 | $363,182,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.54 | $363,182,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.55 | $364,118,797 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.55 | $364,118,797 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.55 | $364,118,797 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.55 | $364,118,797 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.55 | $363,440,676 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.55 | $363,440,676 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.55 | $363,440,676 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.55 | $363,440,676 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.55 | $363,440,676 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.55 | $363,440,676 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.55 | $363,440,676 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.55 | $363,440,676 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.55 | $363,440,676 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.55 | $363,442,456 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.55 | $363,441,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.55 | $363,441,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.55 | $363,441,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.55 | $363,441,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.55 | $363,441,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.55 | $363,441,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.55 | $363,441,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.55 | $363,441,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.55 | $363,441,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.55 | $363,441,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.55 | $363,441,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.55 | $363,441,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.55 | $363,441,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.55 | $363,441,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.55 | $363,441,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.55 | $363,441,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.55 | $363,441,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.55 | $363,441,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.55 | $363,441,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.55 | $363,441,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.55 | $363,471,186 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.55 | $363,471,186 | 6 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.