STAAR Surgical Company (STAA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.47-0.47%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STAA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 25 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
STAA — officer change
Dated 2026-06-22
The filing pertains to the approval of an equity incentive plan amendment, not a management change.
Why it matters: This approval opens up a larger market. It could lead to big sales growth.
Supportive ifFDA announces approval for EVO ICL use in patients aged 45-60.
Worry ifFDA denies or delays approval for EVO ICL in this age group.
Why it matters: Successful product launches could drive future revenue growth and market share.
Supportive ifNext-generation products will launch in Q4 2026.
Worry ifThere is no news or delay on next-generation product launches.
Why it matters: A drop in margin means costs are rising. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifGross margin is below 74.5%. This points to cost pressures.
Less concerning ifGross margin stays at or above 74.5%, indicating strong cost control.
Why it matters: Increased adoption rates could drive revenue growth and market share.
Supportive ifManagement says many more people in China are using EVO+.
Worry ifEVO+ adoption rates are flat or falling. This shows tough competition.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$167 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $614 loss on $10,000 · 6.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,266 loss on $10,000 · 42.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More people are using EVO+. This shows the product is popular and helps growth.
Supportive ifEVO+ adoption rate increases by 15% or more in Q3 compared to Q2.
Worry ifEVO+ adoption rate stagnates or declines in Q3.
Why it matters: Improving operating income shows STAAR's cost management is working. This is key for sustainable growth.
Supportive ifOperating income in Q2 2026 is positive. This shows good cost control.
Worry ifOperating income in Q2 2026 is still negative. This shows problems with cost management.
Why it matters: EVO+ is crucial for STAAR's growth. Success in new markets indicates strong product demand.
Supportive ifEVO+ sales in new markets exceed $10 million within the first quarter of launch.
Worry ifEVO+ fails to gain traction, with sales below $5 million in new markets.
Why it matters: Strong growth in China is key to STAAR's overall revenue. A significant increase confirms market share gains.
Supportive ifQ3 sales in China exceed $52.3 million, up more than 50% YoY.
Worry ifQ3 sales in China fall below $40 million, indicating a slowdown.
Why it matters: A successful ERP system can improve efficiency. It can also help support growth.
Watch forManagement says the ERP system was launched successfully. There were few disruptions.
Also watch forManagement reports big disruptions or delays in the ERP rollout.
Why it matters: Exceeding $6 million in U.S. sales shows STAAR's strong market position and growth potential in a declining laser market.
Supportive ifU.S. net sales exceed $6 million in Q3, confirming strong demand and market share gains.
Worry ifU.S. net sales fall below $5 million in Q3, indicating potential market challenges.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows STAAR is keeping costs low and making money.
Supportive ifOperating income will be above breakeven in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income stays negative in Q2 2026. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Positive net income shows a big gain in financial performance. This is a good sign.
Supportive ifNet income reported as positive for the quarter.
Worry ifNet income remains negative for the quarter.
Why it matters: EVO+ ICL is being adopted well. This helps revenue growth and market share.
Supportive ifEVO+ ICL sales in China exceed $10 million in Q2 2026, showing strong surgeon adoption.
Worry ifEVO+ ICL sales in China fall below $5 million in Q2 2026, indicating weak demand.
Why it matters: Strong growth in China is key for STAAR's overall revenue. It shows demand recovery.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, net sales in China are over $30 million. This shows recovery is ongoing.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, net sales in China are under $20 million. This shows weak demand.
Why it matters: Slower growth in the U.S. could signal market saturation or competitive pressures.
Worry ifU.S. net sales growth reported below 12% YoY, indicating slower momentum.
Less concerning ifU.S. net sales growth remains at or above 12% YoY, showing strong demand.
Why it matters: A decline would test the strength of STAAR's market share gains in China.
Worry ifQ3 sales in China drop below $52.3 million, indicating a loss of momentum.
Less concerning ifQ3 sales in China are over $52.3 million. This shows strong demand.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential slowdown in the company's momentum. This could affect investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Positive adjusted EBITDA means STAAR is in good financial shape and works well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 is over $20 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 falls below $15 million.
Why it matters: Higher margins show better cost control. They also show stronger pricing power.
Supportive ifGross margin is over 75%. This shows good cost control and pricing.
Worry ifGross margin is below 74.5%. This shows problems with cost management.
Why it matters: Strong growth in the U.S. market would reflect STAAR's competitive position amid market declines.
Supportive ifU.S. net sales growth exceeds 15% year-over-year in the next quarter.
Worry ifU.S. net sales growth falls below 12%, indicating potential market share loss.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth would show that STAAR is recovering and gaining market share in China.
Supportive ifQ2 net sales growth exceeds 100% year over year compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 net sales growth is below 50% year over year.