STAAR Surgical Company (STAA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$27.17+7.95%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STAA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
STAA — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-05
Chief Commercial Officer — David Bailey: The filing announces the appointment of a new Chief Commercial Officer, which is a senior executive hire rather than a departure.
Why it matters: STAAR plans for its Swiss plant to supply all EVO lenses shipped to China in 2026, without import tariffs. The result tests this supply plan.
Supportive ifSTAAR reports Nidau supplied all EVO and EVO+ lenses shipped to China in 2026, with no import tariffs on those shipments. (100%)
Worry ifSTAAR reports that Nidau supplied less than 100% of China shipments, or that tariffs applied to those shipments.
Why it matters: Q3 2025 included a one-time $25.9 million order. Growth over the adjusted $68.8 million base tests China demand without that boost.
Watch forQ3 2026 sales top $68.8 million, and China sales grow year over year on a comparable basis.
Also watch forQ3 2026 sales fall below $68.8 million, or China sales fall year over year on a comparable basis.
Why it matters: STAAR said EVO+ adoption and a shift to higher-priced toric lenses helped China sales. More gains could support growth and margins.
Supportive ifSTAAR reports a higher EVO+ or toric lens mix in China, with China sales or gross margin above the prior year.
Worry ifSTAAR reports EVO+ or toric mix stalled or fell, and China sales or gross margin declines year over year.
Why it matters: STAAR says added investment in its ERP and supply chain can support better margins as sales rise. Q3 results will test that claim.
Watch forQ3 gross margin tops 74.5%, and adjusted EBITDA stays positive as sales rise year over year.
Also watch forQ3 gross margin falls below 74.5%, or adjusted EBITDA turns negative as sales still grow from a year ago.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$188 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $593 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,277 loss on $10,000 · 42.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: U.S. sales topped $6 million in each of the last two quarters. Holding that level would support the share-gain story as laser procedures fall.
Supportive ifU.S. net sales exceed $6 million for another quarter and grow year over year.
Worry ifU.S. net sales fall below $6 million, or turn negative year over year.