STAG Industrial (STAG)
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-09-04
$37.68-0.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
STAG Industrial grows revenue about 9% yearly, driven by strong leasing. It keeps free cash flow yield near 6% and pays a 4% dividend yield. The company focuses on disciplined capital use and steady leasing to support income.
Revenue growth could slow below 7% if leasing weakens. Profit margins and cash flow might fall if property costs rise. Capital allocation may remain behind targets, limiting value creation.
The price is about 13% above our fair value near $35 and 21% below the Street median near $44. Analysts expect roughly 9% revenue growth, which aligns with company trends, but the market already reflects steady growth and income.
Breaks if: capital allocation progress score remains below 30% by FY26
Focus on disciplined capital allocation to drive long-term value creation.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable income-generating asset within the real estate sector. The current thesis state indicates a cautious approach due to mixed results in leasing activity and overall company quality decline.
The market currently prices STAG as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. This suggests that investors may be anticipating modest performance without significant growth.
Fundamentals are likely to show steady Same Store Cash NOI growth, supported by disciplined capital allocation. However, mixed results in leasing activity could pose challenges in the near term.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain disciplined capital allocation and the performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, any changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policy could significantly impact STAG's performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: dividend yield falls below 3% next year
Focus on disciplined capital allocation to drive long-term value creation.
Breaks if: free cash flow yield falls below 4% next year
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year
Sustain and grow leasing activity across the portfolio to drive rental income growth and occupancy.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Leasing activity remains strong with 5.6 million square feet commenced in 2026-Q2, slightly down from 6.0 million in 2026-Q1. Cash Rent Change was 19.8% in 2026-Q2, near prior quarter's 20.9%. Management is maintaining focus on leasing growth with a stable trajectory.
“Commenced Operating Portfolio leases of 5.6 million square feet for the second quarter of 2026.”
“STAG delivered strong first quarter results driven by healthy leasing activity.”
“The Company generated strong operating results driven by heightened leasing activity.”
“The Company generated strong operating results driven by heightened leasing activity.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, STAG's performance will depend on management execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.