Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
STAG Industrial (STAG)
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-11-04
$36.91-2.48%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.10 → 1.12 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for STAG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Disciplined capital allocation | The company focuses on disciplined capital use and steady leasing to support income. | Intact | capital allocation progress score remains below 30% by FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
STAG is an industrial real estate business with a growth-oriented, income-producing profile, rather than a turnaround story. The long-term thesis is supported by leasing and operating growth, but the current thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial history to judge it.
STAG trades at a 1.52 premium versus peers, with a durable premium identified as the main valuation driver. The model labels expectations as justified and the expectations gap is 0.08, but confidence in that valuation view is medium.
Over the multi-year view, reported leasing and same-store cash NOI growth support continued operating progress: Q3 cash rent change was 23.8%, and nine-month same-store cash NOI increased from $458.4 million to $476.5 million. Near term, earnings were reported in line, but recent-quarter misses remain a watch item; leverage also edged from 5.0x to 5.1x, despite refinancing savings.
The outlook would gain support if rate cuts begin from the current 3.88% level, while a guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative. It also hinges on continued strength across the real estate sector and how STAG’s recent material agreement and new financial obligation affect capital allocation.
The 1-to-3-year view has evidence of operating growth, balanced by moderate risk, rising leverage, and an incomplete recent performance record. The premium versus peers appears justified in the snapshot, but the thesis depends on execution and sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It keeps free cash flow yield near 6% and pays a 4% dividend yield. |
| Intact |
| dividend yield falls below 3% next year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Free cash flow yield near 6% | It keeps free cash flow yield near 6% and pays a 4% dividend yield. | Intact | free cash flow yield falls below 4% next year | Free cash flow yield: 5.14% As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20265.14 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of at least 7% annually | A primary condition in STAG Industrial's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Revenue growth: 9.44% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 27, 20269.437242 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““The Company generated strong operating results driven by heightened leasing activity, prudent capital allocation, and healthy Same Store Cash NOI growth,” said Bill Crooker, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company.” ““The third quarter built on our leasing and development progress from the first half of the year, aided by a continued improvement in industrial fundamentals,” said Bill Crooker, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company.” Net income was $70.709 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.13 → $1.12 · observed estimates
$0.97B → $0.97B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.13 | $974,506,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.13 | $974,506,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.14 | $965,949,843 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.13 | $974,506,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.13 | $974,506,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.13 | $974,506,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.13 | $974,506,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.14 | $966,160,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.14 | $966,160,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.13 | $965,957,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.14 | $966,160,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.13 | $965,957,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.14 | $966,160,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.14 | $966,160,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.13 | $966,550,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.10 | $973,636,170 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.10 | $973,636,170 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.13 | $966,550,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.10 | $973,636,170 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.13 | $966,550,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.13 | $966,550,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.13 | $966,550,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.13 | $966,550,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.13 | $966,550,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.13 | $966,550,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.10 | $967,581,324 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.10 | $967,581,324 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.10 | $967,581,324 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.10 | $967,581,324 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.10 | $967,581,324 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.10 | $967,581,324 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.10 | $967,581,324 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.10 | $967,581,324 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.10 | $967,581,324 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.10 | $967,581,324 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.10 | $967,581,324 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.10 | $967,581,324 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.10 | $967,581,324 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.10 | $967,581,324 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.10 | $967,581,324 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.10 | $967,581,324 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.10 | $967,581,324 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.10 | $967,581,324 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.10 | $962,611,544 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.10 | $965,689,895 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.10 | $965,689,895 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.10 | $965,689,895 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.10 | $965,689,895 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.10 | $965,689,895 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.10 | $965,689,895 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.10 | $965,689,895 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.10 | $965,689,895 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.10 | $965,689,895 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.10 | $965,689,895 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.10 | $965,689,895 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.10 | $965,689,895 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.10 | $965,689,895 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.10 | $968,536,895 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.10 | $971,536,895 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.10 | $972,536,895 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.10 | $972,536,895 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.10 | $972,536,895 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.10 | $972,536,895 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.10 | $972,536,895 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.12 | $972,079,752 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.