Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$52.16+1.74%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.00 → 4.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for STBA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share increases to at least $0.37 | It keeps increasing dividends, now $0.37 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.36 | Dividend per share: $0.37 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.37 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20260.37 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
STBA is a financial-sector business with a mixed, execution-dependent long-term thesis rather than a clear durable-growth story. Its thesis state is watch: momentum improved and recent earnings were positive, while financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
Valuation is stretched, with STBA trading at a modest premium to peers and expectations somewhat ahead of the evidence. The fragility assessment is low, so weak execution is a concern, but the evidence does not point to several major sources of fragility stacking together.
Near term, recent earnings beats and higher revenue support momentum, but customer and loan growth are mixed, and financial performance still trails the industry cohort. Management’s priorities show mixed progress: nonperforming assets declined, while charge-offs rose; capital repurchases were substantial over time but absent in the latest quarter.
The multi-year thesis depends on customer growth translating into steadier loan growth and operating leverage, while asset quality remains disciplined. Near term, a guidance cut or lower interest rates would be risks; continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, STBA’s thesis rests on turning recent momentum into consistent execution, with loan growth and credit quality still important checks. Valuation is stretched, and the current evidence supports a watchful, mixed view. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| S&T Bancorp grows net income steadily, reaching $35 million next quarter. |
| Intact |
| net income falls below $33 million |
Net income: $36.643M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=35 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202636,643,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income stays at or above $44 million | Operating income rises to $44 million, showing good cost control. | Intact | operating income falls below $42 million | Operating income: $30.604M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=44 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202630,604,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue decline limited to no worse than -11% next year | A supporting condition in S&T Bancorp, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=-11% YoY. | Intact | revenue decline exceeds -11% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.81 → $4.18 · observed estimates
$0.44B → $0.44B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.81 | $435,129,800 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.84 | $435,609,800 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.84 | $435,574,833 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.84 | $435,574,833 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.84 | $435,609,800 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.84 | $435,609,800 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.98 | $438,530,330 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.98 | $438,530,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.98 | $438,530,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.98 | $438,530,330 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.98 | $438,530,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.98 | $438,530,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.98 | $438,530,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.98 | $438,530,330 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.98 | $438,530,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.99 | $437,430,330 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.99 | $437,430,330 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.98 | $438,530,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.99 | $437,430,330 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.98 | $438,530,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.98 | $438,530,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.98 | $438,530,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.98 | $438,530,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.98 | $438,530,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.98 | $438,530,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.99 | $437,430,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.00 | $437,697,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.00 | $437,697,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.00 | $437,697,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.00 | $437,697,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.00 | $437,697,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.00 | $437,697,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.00 | $437,697,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.00 | $437,697,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.00 | $438,340,017 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.00 | $438,406,683 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.00 | $438,406,683 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.00 | $438,406,683 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.00 | $438,406,683 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.00 | $438,406,683 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.00 | $438,406,683 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.00 | $438,406,683 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.00 | $438,406,683 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.00 | $438,406,683 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.00 | $438,406,683 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.00 | $438,406,683 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.00 | $438,406,683 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.00 | $438,406,683 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.00 | $438,406,683 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.00 | $438,406,683 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.00 | $438,406,683 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.00 | $438,406,683 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.00 | $438,406,683 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.00 | $438,406,683 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.00 | $438,406,683 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.01 | $438,806,683 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.04 | $439,313,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.04 | $439,313,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.04 | $439,313,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.11 | $440,341,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.15 | $440,408,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.15 | $440,408,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.15 | $440,408,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.15 | $440,408,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.15 | $440,408,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.15 | $440,408,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.15 | $440,408,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.18 | $441,008,333 | 6 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.