S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$50.64+1.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STBA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -11.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
STBA — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-05
Other Events. The board of directors of S&T Bancorp, Inc. (S&T), the holding company for S&T Bank, approved a $0.37 per share cash dividend on August 5, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 . This is an increase of $0.03, or 8.82 percent, compared to a cash dividend of $0.34 per share declared in the same period in the prior year. The annualized yield using the August 4, 2026, closing price of $52.68 is 2.81 percent. The dividend is payable August 27, 2026 to s…
Why it matters: Slower deposit growth may mean weaker customer ties. This can hurt competitiveness.
Worry ifTotal deposits grow less than 5% annualized in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits grow at or above 5% each year.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could impact S&T Bancorp's performance and outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median of 13% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above the median of 13% year over year.
Why it matters: A big drop in deposits might mean customers are leaving. This can raise funding costs.
Worry ifTotal deposits decline more than $100 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits increase or remain stable in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A decline in NIM may show pressure on interest income. This can hurt overall profits.
Worry ifNIM reported below 3.90% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNIM remains at or above 3.90% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More dividends show strong earnings and a promise to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifS&T announces a cash dividend increase above $0.37 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifS&T maintains the cash dividend at $0.37 per share in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Increasing dividends show strong earnings. They also show a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe cash dividend per share increases from $0.37 in 2026-Q2 to at least $0.38 in the next quarter.
Worry ifThe cash dividend per share remains at $0.37 or decreases.
Why it matters: Strong deposit growth helps fund loans. It also shows that customers have confidence.
Supportive ifTotal deposits grow by more than 11.5% annualized in Q2 2026.
Worry ifTotal deposits grow less than 11.5% annualized in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in ROA may mean lower profits. It could also show less operational efficiency.
Worry ifROA falls below 1.45% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifROA remains above 1.45% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The new $100 million share buyback plan shows S&T's promise to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifS&T repurchases at least $50 million of shares under the new program by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo significant share repurchases occur under the new program by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings growth is key for keeping investor trust and helping stock price.
Watch forDiluted EPS exceeds $1.02 in Q3 2026.
Also watch forDiluted EPS falls below $1.02 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher charge-offs may show worse asset quality. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifNet charge-offs in Q3 are over $1.5 million. This shows possible credit problems.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs are under $1.5 million. This shows strong asset quality is still there.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth would support the company's growth strategy and improve earnings.
Supportive ifTotal portfolio loans increase by more than $100 million in Q3.
Worry ifTotal portfolio loans increase by less than $50 million in Q3.
Why it matters: An increase shows good capital management. It also shows confidence in future earnings.
Supportive ifThe board announces a dividend increase above $0.37 per share in Q3.
Worry ifThe board maintains or decreases the dividend from $0.37 per share.
Why it matters: Stable or growing deposits show strong customer confidence. They also show good financial health.
Supportive ifTotal deposits stabilize or increase in Q3 after a decrease in Q2.
Worry ifTotal deposits decrease again in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$77 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $182 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,338 loss on $10,000 · 13.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.