Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Stem Inc (STEM)
NYSEUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.88+21.52%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for STEM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin near 45% in 2025 | A supporting condition in Stem Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~45%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 40% | Gross margin: 41.26% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~45%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 202641.26404 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not a proven durable compounder: it remains loss-making, and the evidence rates management as volatile and risk as high. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with some progress on software growth and operating leverage but weak recent performance.
The valuation model describes STEM as cheap versus peers, while also showing a small peer premium and low confidence. Its expectations-gap measure is negative, but the evidence does not explain that measure, so the market’s specific assumptions are unclear; valuation alone does not resolve the business risks.
Near term, recent results show improvement in adjusted EBITDA, software-related revenue, and contracted backlog, while ARR progress remains limited against year-end guidance and software growth slowed in Q2. The main execution test is whether STEM delivers its full-year EBITDA and ARR commitments; the October 23 listing-rule notice adds risk, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued operating leverage, growth in PowerTrack and recurring revenue, and delivery against guidance. Rate cuts and strength among sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while weaker guidance or execution would challenge the thesis.
For a 1-to-3-year view, STEM has early signs of improvement, but its loss-making profile, weak recent performance, high risk, and listing-rule notice keep the thesis fragile despite a peer-relative valuation discount. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company targets improving cash flow and achieving positive net income. |
| Improving |
| Cash from operating activities remains negative or worsens |
Cash from operations: $342,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: cash from operating activities improves toward positive territory. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 2026342,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income moves toward positive territory | The company targets improving cash flow and achieving positive net income. | Improving | Net income remains deeply negative or deteriorates | Net income: $-14.383M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income improves toward positive. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 12, 2026-14,383,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full year 2026 revenue reaches at least $140 million | A primary condition in Stem Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=140 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | Full year 2026 revenue falls below $140 million | Revenue: $33.654M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=140 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 202633,654,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-5.27 → $-5.57 · observed estimates
$0.18B → $0.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-5.27 | $178,075,106 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-5.27 | $178,075,106 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-5.27 | $178,075,106 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-5.27 | $178,075,106 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-5.27 | $178,075,106 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-5.27 | $178,075,106 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-5.81 | $182,391,470 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-5.81 | $182,391,470 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-5.70 | $178,075,106 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-5.81 | $182,391,470 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-5.70 | $184,087,207 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-5.81 | $182,391,470 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-5.70 | $184,087,207 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-5.70 | $184,087,207 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-5.70 | $184,087,207 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-5.81 | $182,391,470 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-5.70 | $184,087,207 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-5.81 | $182,391,470 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-5.81 | $182,391,470 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-5.70 | $184,087,207 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-5.70 | $184,087,207 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-5.70 | $184,087,207 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-5.70 | $184,087,207 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-5.70 | $184,087,207 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-5.70 | $184,087,207 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-5.72 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-5.69 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-5.69 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-5.69 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-5.69 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-5.69 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-5.69 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-5.69 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-5.69 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-5.69 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-5.69 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-5.69 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-5.69 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-5.69 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-5.69 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-5.69 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-5.69 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-5.69 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-5.69 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-5.69 | $177,587,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-5.63 | $176,662,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-5.63 | $176,662,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-5.63 | $176,662,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-5.63 | $176,662,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-5.63 | $176,662,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-5.63 | $176,662,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-5.63 | $176,662,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-5.57 | $170,912,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-5.57 | $170,912,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-5.57 | $170,912,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-5.57 | $170,912,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-5.57 | $170,912,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-5.57 | $170,912,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-5.57 | $170,912,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-5.57 | $170,912,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-5.57 | $170,912,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-5.57 | $170,912,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-5.57 | $170,912,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-5.57 | $170,912,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-5.57 | $170,912,870 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-5.57 | $170,912,870 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.