Stem Inc (STEM)
NYSEUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.57+1.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STEM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -81.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 66 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 14.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 96.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
STEM — officer change
Dated 2026-06-03
The filing pertains to the amendment and restatement of a compensatory plan.
Why it matters: If the sector shows growth, it can positively impact Stem's performance. It reflects overall market health.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up to above 4% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth slows down to below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is key for financial health. It shows improved efficiency.
Supportive ifCash from operations will be positive next quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations stays negative or gets worse.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow shows better financial health. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow is now positive. It exceeded $0 million in Q2.
Worry ifOperating cash flow remains negative in Q2, worse than -$8.3 million.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue guidance shows that management is confident in hitting targets. This is true even with recent challenges.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $140M to $190M.
Worry ifManagement cuts the 2026 revenue forecast to less than $140M.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$281 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $767 loss on $10,000 · 7.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,060 loss on $10,000 · 50.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Achieving positive net income shows financial progress. This can improve how the market sees the company.
Supportive ifNet income turns positive in Q2, exceeding $0 million.
Worry ifNet income remains negative in Q2, worse than -$18.9 million.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future revenue and demand for Stem's services.
Supportive ifContracted backlog exceeds $30 million by the end of Q3.
Worry ifContracted backlog decreases or stays below $27.1 million by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change strategy and performance. This may affect how investors feel.
Watch forNew leadership is appointed with a strong track record in the industry.
Also watch forChanges in leadership can create more instability. This can lead to uncertainty in strategy.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA means improved cost control and operations. This is key for investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is over $2.0 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $2.0 million in Q2.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better financial performance. It also shows progress toward making money.
Supportive ifNet loss decreases below $18.9 million in Q2.
Worry ifNet loss increases above $20 million in Q2.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights on revenue, cash flow, and net income progress.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth and improved cash flow.
Also watch forEarnings report shows declining revenue and worsening cash flow.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted EBITDA may show trouble in making money.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $5 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA is above $5 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Better net income shows more profit. This can increase investor trust.
Supportive ifNet income improves to less than -$18.9M in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income worsens, landing worse than -$18.9M in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Slower ARR growth may show trouble in keeping and growing customer contracts.
Worry ifARR growth below 2% in Q3.
Less concerning ifARR growth exceeds 2% in Q3.
Why it matters: Growth in PowerTrack software revenue is important for Stem's performance.
Supportive ifPowerTrack software revenue growth exceeds 11% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifPowerTrack software revenue growth falls below 5% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: A bigger contracted backlog shows demand for Stem's services. This supports future revenue.
Supportive ifContracted backlog grows more than 10% sequentially in Q3.
Worry ifContracted backlog declines or grows less than 5% sequentially in Q3.