Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
StepStone Group (STEP)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-05
$42.81-7.74%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.38 → 3.42 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for STEP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve cash from operations toward positive | Cash from operations improved from -$66.5M to -$23.2M, showing progress. | Broken | Cash from operations remains below -$30M in FY26-Q4 | Cash from operations: $-457.511M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations improves to >= -$23.2M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 2026-457,511,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
STEP is a financials business whose long-term case depends on expanding assets under management and fee-earning capital. That growth priority is on track, but the thesis is in a watch state after weak results and a recent shift from mixed to cautious.
The evidence describes STEP as stretched, trading at a 1.44 premium versus peers, with low confidence in the valuation model. The expectations gap is modest, and the available evidence does not show a high fragility signal.
Over the multi-year view, continued growth in assets under management and fee-earning capital supports the business, while recent earnings performance is weak. Adjusted net income per share fell from $0.65 in 2026-Q3 to $0.48 in 2027-Q1, and recent evidence includes an earnings miss and a run of misses. Near-term execution risk remains elevated, with guidance and earnings delivery important to watch.
The thesis depends on whether asset growth can translate into stronger earnings and whether management improves earnings execution. A guidance cut would add to concern, while continued strong results and higher guidance from financials sector bellwethers could support sector momentum. The effect of rate changes is another swing factor, though the evidence does not establish when rates may change.
For the 1-to-3-year view, STEP has a clear growth priority that management is executing, but weaker earnings and a stretched valuation keep the thesis cautious. The next stage depends on earnings delivery, guidance, and the financials sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| StepStone aims for $0.65 EPS in fiscal 2026, up from $0.40. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $0.50 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $-1.41 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=0.65 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026-1.41 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete strategic acquisitions to enhance market position | The company completed strategic acquisitions to boost growth. | Intact | Failure to complete key acquisitions by mid-2026 | Acquisition completed by 2026-05-29 vs mid-2026 target News and 8-K filings confirm the completion of the third exchange for real estate, real assets, and private debt equity interests in May 2026. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.30 → $3.42 · observed estimates
$1.89B → $1.83B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.30 | $1,885,043,180 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.30 | $1,885,043,180 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.33 | $1,777,435,630 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.33 | $1,777,435,630 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.30 | $1,885,043,180 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.33 | $1,777,435,630 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.30 | $1,885,043,180 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.30 | $1,885,043,180 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.33 | $1,777,435,630 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.30 | $1,885,043,180 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.33 | $1,777,435,630 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.33 | $1,777,435,630 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.33 | $1,777,435,630 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.33 | $1,777,435,630 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.33 | $1,777,435,630 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.31 | $1,885,043,180 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.31 | $1,885,043,180 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.33 | $1,777,435,630 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.33 | $1,777,435,630 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.33 | $1,777,435,630 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.33 | $1,777,435,630 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.33 | $1,777,435,630 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.33 | $1,777,435,630 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.33 | $1,777,435,630 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.33 | $1,777,435,630 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.40 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.39 | $1,779,667,547 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.38 | $1,804,306,290 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.38 | $1,805,092,790 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.38 | $1,805,092,790 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.38 | $1,805,092,790 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.38 | $1,805,092,790 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.38 | $1,805,092,790 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.38 | $1,805,092,790 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.38 | $1,805,092,790 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.38 | $1,805,092,790 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.38 | $1,805,092,790 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.36 | $1,802,671,823 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.36 | $1,802,671,823 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.36 | $1,803,326,940 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.36 | $1,803,326,940 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.36 | $1,803,326,940 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.37 | $1,813,576,017 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.37 | $1,813,576,017 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.37 | $1,813,576,017 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.43 | $1,906,911,241 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.43 | $1,906,911,241 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.43 | $1,906,911,241 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.43 | $1,906,911,241 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.43 | $1,906,911,241 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.43 | $1,906,911,241 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.43 | $1,906,911,241 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.42 | $1,834,628,034 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.42 | $1,834,628,034 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.42 | $1,834,628,034 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.42 | $1,834,628,034 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.42 | $1,834,628,034 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.42 | $1,834,628,034 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.42 | $1,834,628,034 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.42 | $1,834,128,034 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $3.42 | $1,834,128,034 | 7 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.