ONE Group Hospitality Inc/The (STKS)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.63-0.61%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue reaches at least $847.5 million in FY26: FY26 revenue guidance $812.5M vs target $847.5M.
ONE Group Hospitality aims to grow revenue to about $847.5 million in 2026. The company focuses on capital-efficient growth with new restaurants costing $1.5 million or less. Analysts expect revenue growth near 10% next year. The CEO's extended contract and new development deals support recovery.
The company is loss-making with repeated earnings misses. Profitability remains weak and free cash flow is negative. The sector faces headwinds and the stock trades well below analyst price consensus. Growth targets may be too optimistic given recent results.
The market prices in about 10% revenue growth and a fair value near $13.22. Our view aligns with this growth but remains cautious due to ongoing losses and execution risks.
Breaks if: Average development cost exceeds $1.5 million per location
Breaks if: EPS remains negative or declines further in FY27
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $840 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround scenario, as STKS is currently navigating through a period of mixed performance and high risk. The company has emphasized capital-efficient growth but has faced downward revisions in revenue and EBITDA guidance.
The market appears to have priced in a level of fragility, with a low tier of fragility indicating that there are no immediate concerns affecting stability. However, the valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, reflecting an expectations gap that suggests the market anticipates challenges ahead.
Fundamentals may struggle in the near term due to a high probability of missing earnings expectations, as the company has a history of consecutive misses. Recent financial performance has been below industry peers, which adds to the uncertainty.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on capital-efficient growth and whether they can achieve their revised revenue and EBITDA guidance. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and performance of sector leaders could significantly influence STKS's trajectory.
In the 1 to 3 year view, STKS is in a cautious position with mixed signals and high risk. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.