Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
ONE Group Hospitality Inc/The (STKS)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.18-0.42%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.99 → 0.99 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for STKS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
New restaurant development costs remain at or below $1.5 million each | The company focuses on capital-efficient growth with new restaurants costing $1.5 million or less. | Intact | Average development cost exceeds $1.5 million per location | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk restaurant growth story with loss-making valuation characteristics, not a proven steady compounder. Its multi-year view depends on management turning capital discipline and a continuing development pipeline into reliable revenue and earnings.
The evidence describes STKS as cheap versus peers, with a justified priced-in tag and low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, but model confidence is low, so the valuation signal is uncertain and does not remove the business risks.
Near term, execution looks pressured: first-half revenue was slightly below the prior year, and management lowered both 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance in the second quarter. Capital spending fell in both reported quarters as management focused on capital-efficient growth, but recent earnings misses, elevated miss risk, and declining company momentum leave the next quarter uncertain.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether capital discipline and portfolio optimization can support growth while revenue and earnings guidance stabilize. Near term, another guidance cut would add pressure; continued strength or weakness among restaurant bellwethers such as MCD, SBUX, and YUM could also shape the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, STKS remains a watch-stage thesis: management is showing cost discipline, but recent execution and the elevated risk of another earnings miss call for caution in assessing the business outlook. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in ONE Group Hospitality Inc/The's published investment case. The stated target is EPS ≥ $0.58. |
| Intact |
| EPS remains negative or declines further in FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.79 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS ≥ $0.58. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026-0.79 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $847.5 million in FY26 | A primary condition in ONE Group Hospitality Inc/The's published investment case. The stated target is ~$847.5 million. | Broken | Revenue falls below $840 million in FY26 | Revenue: $176.958M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$847.5 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026176,958,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.84 → $0.99 · observed estimates
$0.92B → $0.88B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.84 | $921,020,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.84 | $921,020,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.84 | $921,020,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.84 | $921,020,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.84 | $921,020,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.84 | $921,020,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.84 | $921,020,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.84 | $921,020,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.84 | $921,020,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.84 | $921,020,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.84 | $921,020,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.84 | $921,020,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.84 | $921,020,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.84 | $921,020,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.94 | $918,433,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.94 | $918,433,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.94 | $918,433,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.94 | $918,433,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.94 | $918,433,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.94 | $918,433,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.94 | $918,433,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.94 | $918,433,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.94 | $918,433,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.94 | $918,433,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.94 | $918,433,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.71 | $866,192,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.99 | $876,315,750 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.