ONE Group Hospitality Inc/The (STKS)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.63-0.61%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STKS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -70.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 76.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
STKS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Conditions. On August 5, 2026, The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for the second quarter ended June 28, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: More spending might mean a change from smart growth. This could affect cash flow.
Worry ifQ3 spending was below $38 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 spending was above $42 million.
Why it matters: Achieving this revenue target is key for the company's growth strategy. It shows if they can sustain their growth momentum.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue growth meets or exceeds the target range of $840 to $855 million.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue is under $840 million. This shows growth is hard.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows strong performance and good cost control. This helps investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was between $100 million and $110 million for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was less than $100 million for 2026.
Why it matters: The change in auditors could impact financial reporting and investor confidence. Clarity on this issue is crucial.
Worry ifA new independent accounting firm has been announced.
Less concerning ifFurther legal issues or delays in appointing a new auditor.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $643 loss on $10,000 · 6.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,776 loss on $10,000 · 47.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping capex low supports free cash flow and financial health amid revenue challenges.
Supportive ifQ3 capital spending was less than $38 million.
Worry ifQ3 capital spending was over $42 million.
Why it matters: Achieving this revenue range is key to meeting the full-year target of $840 to $855 million.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported within the range of $202 to $206 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue falls below $202 million.
Why it matters: Reaching the revenue target shows the company is on track for growth. It is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue was $420 million or more. This shows progress toward the yearly goal.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was under $400 million. This shows a struggle to meet yearly goals.
Why it matters: Falling short of revenue guidance would signal challenges in achieving growth targets.
Worry ifTotal GAAP revenues reported below $176 million for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal GAAP revenues meet or exceed $176 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing conversions will help make more money. It will also support the asset-light plan.
Supportive ifCompletion of all planned Grill Concepts conversions by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifConversions are delayed or not completed as planned by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Lower EBITDA shows trouble in making money. This happens when costs go up.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was less than $12 million for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA meets or exceeds $12 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Negative comparable sales show problems with consumer demand. This means fewer people are buying.
Worry ifComparable sales growth was below 0% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifComparable sales growth meets or exceeds 0% for Q3 2026.