ONE Group Hospitality Inc/The (STKS)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.13-4.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STKS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -76.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 8.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 84.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
STKS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
Results of Operations and Financial Conditions. On November 4, 2026, The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for the third quarter ended September 27, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: Q3 revenue below the guided range would deepen the sales shortfall. Q2 revenue fell 3.3% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $176 million, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is at least $176 million and within the $176 million to $180 million range.
Why it matters: Management cut its 2026 revenue range from $840–$855 million to $805–$820 million. Results below $805 million would add to that setback.
Worry ifReported 2026 revenue is below $805 million, the low end of the latest range.
Less concerning ifReported 2026 revenue is at least $805 million and within the latest $805 million to $820 million range.
Why it matters: The opening would show progress on the Grill conversion plan. Management cites $1.0–$1.5 million in net build-out cost and a one-year payback.
Supportive ifThe Baltimore Kona Grill site reopens as an STK in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe Baltimore STK does not reopen by the end of Q3, or management reports a delay.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$164 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $632 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,703 loss on $10,000 · 57.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.