Steel Dynamics (STLD)
NASDAQMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-09-04
$242.06-1.61%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STLD
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $242 STLD trades at 22× p/e, in line with its 18× p/e peer median — but our blended $218 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $260–$300. Note: our $218 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($260–$300). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $273.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $39.64 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $126.42 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $207.08 | 12.3 | 18.91 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$260.00 – $300.00 (median $273.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-08-10
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 134% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 13.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $6.17/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $171.51 |
| 26.0 |
| 6.61 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $301.60 | 15.6 | 19.27 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $211.88 | 1.5 | 142.05 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $467.24 | 25.6 | 18.23 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $83.95 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $204.29 | 17.9 | 11.41 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $54.43 | 26.0 | 2.10 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $367.75 | 15.6 | 23.50 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $296.92 | 1.5 | 199.06 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $602.28 | 25.6 | 23.50 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $25.32 | 26.0 | 0.98 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $458.23 | 15.6 | 29.28 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $369.98 | 1.5 | 248.04 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $750.47 | 25.6 | 29.28 | Analyst | medium |