Steel Dynamics (STLD)
NASDAQMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-07-07
$229.62+1.12%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $229.62. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $230 STLD trades at 25× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median, and our $232 fair value agrees. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $190–$293. Not investment advice.
$190.00 – $293.00 (median $270.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-24
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 145% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 10.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $5.68/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $270.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $114.09 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $197.34 | 14.3 | 15.61 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $146.79 | 32.1 | 4.57 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $396.73 | 23.5 | 16.88 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $274.36 | 2.1 | 130.83 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $468.24 | 27.7 | 16.88 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $75.76 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $317.97 | 18.8 | 16.88 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $227.26 | 23.5 | 9.67 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $28.70 | 32.1 | 0.89 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $538.11 | 23.5 | 22.89 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $415.52 | 2.1 | 198.14 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $635.09 | 27.7 | 22.89 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $431.27 | 18.8 | 22.89 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $705.48 | 23.5 | 30.01 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $544.76 | 2.1 | 259.77 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $832.62 | 27.7 | 30.01 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $565.41 | 18.8 | 30.01 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.