Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Steel Dynamics (STLD)
NASDAQMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-11-04
$240.12-3.04%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
20.49 → 21.93 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for STLD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS guidance near $3.53 per share for next quarter | Analysts expect earnings per share near $3.53 next quarter. | Under Pressure | EPS guidance falls below $3.51 per share next quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical steel and aluminum producer, with results tied in part to demand across its markets. The long-term thesis is intact, though execution is mixed: steel demand and capital deployment look strong, while aluminum expansion is still working through startup costs.
Valuation is slightly above peers, and the expectations gap is close to neutral. The valuation measure rose recently, while the priced-in assessment says the setup is justified rather than broadly fragile. That leaves some room for execution concerns, but not a clear valuation cushion based on this evidence.
Near term, recent financial performance is strong, with record steel shipments, a larger fabrication backlog, and rising sales. Aluminum shipments have grown and the platform reached EBITDA breakeven in the latest quarter, but it still had startup operating losses. Recent earnings misses and a run of misses add near-term execution risk despite a low estimated miss risk.
The multi-year view depends on whether steel and aluminum demand stays firm and management continues delivering on its stated priorities. In the near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken that tailwind.
Over the next one to three years, STLD’s thesis rests on strong domestic demand, continued execution in steel, and progress toward profitable aluminum operations. The business setup remains intact, but earnings consistency and startup costs are important risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Steel Dynamics's published investment case. The stated target is No major AI capex disruptions and stable macro environment. |
| Under Pressure |
| Significant AI capex failures or worsening macro conditions |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete ownership of New Process Steel | The company owns all of New Process Steel, improving control. | Intact | Ownership stake falls below 100% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Steel shipments reach 3.6 million tons and backlog grows 38% YoY | Steel Dynamics sells more steel with record shipments of 3.6 million tons. | Intact | Steel shipments fall below 3.6 million tons or backlog growth below 20% YoY | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$19.33 → $21.93 · observed estimates
$23.57B → $25.42B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $19.33 | $23,565,932,239 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $18.86 | $23,362,313,800 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $19.33 | $23,565,932,239 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $18.86 | $23,362,313,800 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $19.34 | $23,565,932,239 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $19.34 | $23,565,932,239 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $18.86 | $23,362,313,800 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $18.86 | $23,362,313,800 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $19.34 | $23,565,932,239 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $18.86 | $23,362,313,800 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $18.86 | $23,362,313,800 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $19.34 | $23,565,932,239 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $19.34 | $23,565,932,239 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $19.34 | $23,565,932,239 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $19.34 | $23,565,932,239 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $18.86 | $23,362,313,800 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $18.86 | $23,362,313,800 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $19.02 | $23,550,233,220 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $19.02 | $23,550,233,220 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $19.34 | $23,565,932,239 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $19.34 | $23,565,932,239 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $19.34 | $23,565,932,239 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $19.34 | $23,565,932,239 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $19.34 | $23,565,932,239 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $19.34 | $23,565,932,239 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $19.47 | $23,752,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $19.47 | $23,752,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $19.47 | $23,752,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $19.47 | $23,752,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $19.47 | $23,752,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $19.39 | $23,742,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $19.39 | $23,742,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $19.39 | $23,742,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $19.39 | $23,742,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $19.39 | $23,742,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $19.39 | $23,742,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $19.39 | $23,742,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $19.39 | $23,742,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $19.39 | $23,742,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $19.39 | $23,742,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $19.39 | $23,742,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $19.39 | $23,742,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $19.39 | $23,742,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $19.39 | $23,742,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $19.39 | $23,742,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $19.39 | $23,742,281,753 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $19.59 | $23,833,602,253 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $19.59 | $23,833,602,253 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $19.85 | $23,934,158,362 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $19.85 | $23,934,158,362 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $19.85 | $23,934,158,362 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $20.07 | $24,047,127,322 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $20.07 | $24,047,127,322 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $20.07 | $24,047,127,322 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $20.07 | $24,047,127,322 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $20.07 | $24,047,127,322 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $20.06 | $24,157,085,583 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $20.06 | $24,157,085,583 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $20.06 | $24,157,085,583 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $20.06 | $24,157,085,583 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $20.06 | $24,157,085,583 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $20.06 | $24,157,085,583 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $20.07 | $24,167,479,031 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $20.07 | $24,167,479,031 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $20.07 | $24,167,479,031 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $20.17 | $24,167,479,031 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $20.17 | $24,167,479,031 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $20.17 | $24,167,479,031 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $20.17 | $24,167,479,031 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $20.32 | $24,322,979,031 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $20.32 | $24,322,979,031 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $20.49 | $24,430,980,938 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $20.49 | $24,486,534,756 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $20.49 | $24,486,534,756 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $20.49 | $24,486,534,756 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $20.49 | $24,486,534,756 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $20.49 | $24,486,534,756 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $21.18 | $24,767,236,428 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $21.18 | $24,767,236,428 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $21.18 | $24,767,236,428 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $21.58 | $24,897,037,550 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $21.58 | $24,897,037,550 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $21.58 | $24,897,037,550 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $21.58 | $24,897,037,550 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $21.76 | $24,998,438,498 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $21.87 | $24,998,438,498 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $21.87 | $24,998,438,498 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $21.97 | $25,324,761,693 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $21.91 | $25,300,681,057 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $21.94 | $25,341,414,693 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $21.94 | $25,341,414,693 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $21.94 | $25,341,414,693 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $21.94 | $25,341,414,693 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $21.94 | $25,341,414,693 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $21.94 | $25,341,414,693 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $21.94 | $25,341,414,693 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $21.94 | $25,341,414,693 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $21.94 | $25,341,414,693 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $21.94 | $25,341,414,693 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $21.94 | $25,341,414,693 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $21.94 | $25,341,414,693 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $21.93 | $25,419,805,663 | 9 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
2 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.