Steel Dynamics (STLD)
NASDAQMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-09-04
$242.06-1.61%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STLD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
STLD — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-04
CEO — Mark D. Millett: The CEO is retiring and being succeeded by the current CFO.
Why it matters: Higher net income would show strong performance. It also shows good use of funds.
Supportive ifQ3 net income reported above $534 million.
Worry ifNet income falls below $500 million.
Why it matters: Finishing the third cold mill will boost aluminum production. This helps aluminum operations grow.
Supportive ifThe third cold mill will start commercial operations in Q3 2026.
Worry ifDelay in the commissioning of the third cold mill beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Starting automotive sales would show the success of the aluminum expansion strategy. This could drive future growth.
Supportive ifFirst sales of aluminum flat rolled products to car makers will happen before 2026 ends.
Worry ifNo sales to automotive customers by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Stable pricing above this level would indicate a healthy market and strong margins.
Supportive ifAverage external steel selling price remains above $1,300 per ton in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAverage selling price drops below $1,200 per ton, signaling pricing pressure.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$154 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $335 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,255 loss on $10,000 · 22.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Rising steel prices would indicate strong market conditions and support revenue growth.
Supportive ifAverage selling price for steel goes up by more than $105 per ton.
Worry ifAverage selling price for steel goes down or stays the same.
Why it matters: Higher domestic steel demand will help revenue and profits in the next quarters.
Supportive ifCustomer order backlog is up over 38% compared to last year.
Worry ifCustomer order backlog is flat or going down.
Why it matters: Steel Dynamics wants to take advantage of good market conditions for growth.
Supportive ifMarket reports show that steel prices are rising a lot because of higher demand.
Worry ifMarket reports say steel prices are going down or staying the same.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong demand and helps future revenue. This is key for steel operations.
Supportive ifCustomer orders are up more than 40% from last year.
Worry ifCustomer order backlog growth slows or falls compared to last year.
Why it matters: Starting car sales would support the growth plan in aluminum and increase revenue.
Supportive ifThe first car sales from aluminum operations will be announced by the end of 2026.
Worry ifDelay in automotive sales start beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: More shipments show strong demand. It also shows aluminum operations are working well.
Supportive ifAluminum flat rolled product shipments reach or exceed 100,000 metric tons in Q3 2026.
Worry ifShipments are below 80,000 metric tons. This shows slower growth and lower demand.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Steel Dynamics can improve after a recent earnings miss.
Watch forQ2 earnings were better than expected. There is more demand for steel and aluminum.
Also watch forQ2 earnings missed again. This shows ongoing problems with demand.
Why it matters: A new record in steel shipments shows strong demand and good operations.
Supportive ifQ3 steel shipments reported above 3.7 million tons.
Worry ifSteel shipments fall below 3.5 million tons.
Why it matters: Expanding aluminum operations can help the company earn more money. It can also boost its market position.
Supportive ifCompletion of the third cold mill operational by July 2026.
Worry ifDelays in commissioning the third cold mill beyond July 2026.