Steel Dynamics (STLD)
NASDAQMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-11-05
$221.90-7.59%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STLD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
STLD — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-20
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 19, 2026, Steel Dynamics, Inc. issued a press release titled “Steel Dynamics Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results.” A copy of that press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in Exhibit 99.1 is furnished under this
Why it matters: Shipments rose from 53,000 tons in Q2 to 55,000 in Q3. More growth would show the mill is ramping up.
Supportive ifQ4 aluminum sheet shipments exceed Q3's 55,000 metric tons, and startup losses fall below $26 million.
Worry ifQ4 shipments stay at or below 55,000 metric tons, or startup losses rise above $26 million.
Why it matters: The backlog rose 50% from a year earlier and reaches into Q2 2027. Further growth would support demand for fabricated steel.
Supportive ifThe next report shows the fabrication backlog above 50% growth year over year and extending beyond Q2 2027.
Worry ifThe next report shows backlog growth at or below 50% year over year, or an end date before Q2 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$141 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $358 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,255 loss on $10,000 · 22.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.