Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
STMicroelectronics NV (STM)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$45.60-6.06%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.69 → 2.73 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for STM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
AI data-center revenue approaches $1 billion | The company benefits from strong AI data-center demand near $1 billion revenue. | Intact | AI data-center revenue fails to grow or declines materially | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-sensitive technology business, but the evidence does not support a clearer label such as a durable compounder or a turnaround. The current thesis state is insufficient because recent financial-performance history is limited, and overall confidence is low.
The valuation label recently changed from full to fair, but the snapshot does not provide peer comparisons or detail on market expectations. Fragility is assessed as low, though that does not resolve the uncertainty in the thesis.
The near-term earnings risk is described as quiet, with a 27% miss probability, but the snapshot also notes recent misses by STM and its industry peers. The broader sector backdrop is neutral, while elevated risk and limited performance history make the near-term fundamental direction difficult to judge.
Over the near term, rate cuts or stabilization among major technology companies could support the sector, while a material slowdown in GDP growth could weigh more heavily on growth-sensitive technology businesses. Over the multi-year view, the key gap is clearer evidence that STM can improve its recent performance; the snapshot provides little detail on that execution.
The 1-to-3-year view is uncertain: valuation is labeled fair, but low confidence and limited evidence on business performance leave the thesis unresolved. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit per share rises to $2.50 next year. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $1.28 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
total revenue reaches at least $16.7 billion in FY27 | A primary condition in STMicroelectronics NV's published investment case. The stated target is >= $16.7 billion. | Intact | revenue falls below $14.3 billion in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.54 → $2.73 · observed estimates
$16.83B → $17.44B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.54 | $16,825,916,350 | 9 / 19 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.47 | $16,902,969,450 | 9 / 19 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.64 | $16,953,697,789 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.64 | $16,953,697,789 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.47 | $16,902,961,609 | 9 / 19 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.64 | $16,953,697,789 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.46 | $16,981,247,660 | 9 / 19 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.62 | $17,008,438,615 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.62 | $17,008,438,615 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.53 | $16,981,247,660 | 9 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.65 | $17,062,235,920 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.65 | $17,062,235,920 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.65 | $17,062,235,920 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.65 | $17,062,235,920 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.65 | $17,062,235,920 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.53 | $17,003,345,080 | 9 / 19 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.65 | $17,062,235,920 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.65 | $17,062,235,920 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.65 | $17,062,235,920 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.65 | $17,062,235,920 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.65 | $17,062,235,920 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.65 | $17,062,235,920 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.65 | $17,062,235,920 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.65 | $17,062,235,920 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.65 | $17,062,235,920 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.68 | $17,080,468,583 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.68 | $17,117,859,886 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.68 | $17,117,859,886 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.68 | $17,117,859,886 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.68 | $17,117,859,886 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.68 | $17,117,859,886 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.68 | $17,117,859,886 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.68 | $17,117,859,886 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.68 | $17,117,859,886 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.68 | $17,117,859,886 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.68 | $17,117,859,886 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.68 | $17,117,859,886 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.68 | $17,117,859,886 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.68 | $17,119,077,278 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.68 | $17,119,095,930 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.68 | $17,119,095,930 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.68 | $17,119,095,930 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.68 | $17,119,095,930 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.68 | $17,119,095,930 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.68 | $17,119,095,930 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.68 | $17,119,095,930 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.68 | $17,119,095,930 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.68 | $17,119,095,930 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.67 | $17,119,105,485 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.67 | $17,119,105,485 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.67 | $17,119,105,485 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.67 | $17,119,104,384 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.67 | $17,119,104,384 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.67 | $17,119,104,384 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.67 | $17,119,191,341 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.68 | $17,119,191,341 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.68 | $17,119,191,341 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.68 | $17,119,191,341 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.68 | $17,119,191,341 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.68 | $17,124,980,329 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.68 | $17,124,980,329 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.70 | $17,124,980,329 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.70 | $17,124,980,329 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.70 | $17,124,980,329 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.70 | $17,124,980,329 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.70 | $17,124,980,329 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.70 | $17,124,980,329 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.71 | $17,134,136,851 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.71 | $17,134,136,851 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.69 | $17,134,136,851 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.69 | $17,134,136,851 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.69 | $17,134,136,851 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.69 | $17,134,136,851 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.69 | $17,134,136,851 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.69 | $17,134,136,851 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.69 | $17,134,136,851 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.69 | $17,134,136,851 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.69 | $17,134,136,851 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.69 | $17,134,136,851 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.69 | $17,134,136,851 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.69 | $17,134,136,851 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.69 | $17,134,136,851 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.69 | $17,134,136,851 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.69 | $17,134,136,851 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.69 | $17,134,136,851 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.69 | $17,134,136,851 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.68 | $17,143,494,691 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.68 | $17,143,494,691 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.69 | $17,162,581,647 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.69 | $17,162,581,647 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.69 | $17,162,581,647 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.69 | $17,162,581,647 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.69 | $17,162,581,647 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.69 | $17,162,581,647 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.69 | $17,162,581,647 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.69 | $17,162,581,647 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.69 | $17,263,345,482 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.73 | $17,444,876,080 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.73 | $17,444,876,080 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.73 | $17,444,876,080 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.73 | $17,434,339,577 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.73 | $17,437,011,781 | 7 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.