Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$27.45+1.70%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for STOK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain funding for operations through 2028 via Biogen collaboration | It has funding from Biogen to support operations through 2028. | Intact | Funding runs out before 2028 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a loss-making, clinical-stage biotech with elevated risk, rather than an established earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent momentum improved after earnings, but execution and clinical evidence remain incomplete.
The valuation signal points to a 6.7% premium versus peers, while the model has low confidence and identifies pipeline optionality as the main valuation driver. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified with low fragility, but the evidence does not show precisely what clinical success or failure the market assumes.
Near term, recent results include an earnings beat and a marked improvement in company momentum, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to the industry cohort. Revenue was $11.3 million versus $10.6 million a year earlier, while the quarter had a $73.6 million net loss and higher research spending; reported cash is expected to fund operations into early 2028. Execution is partial: EMPEROR enrollment has progressed, but follow-up, data, and the U.S. NDA submission remain ahead, and initial STK-002 data are expected in H1 2027.
The multi-year view depends on completing EMPEROR follow-up, producing useful zorevunersen data, and submitting the U.S. NDA, while STK-002 advances and yields clinical data. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could weigh on the setup; continued earnings strength among sector bellwethers would be a favorable backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, STOK’s thesis remains tied to clinical execution and evidence that can support its pipeline, against a backdrop of losses and elevated risk. Recent earnings improved momentum, but major clinical milestones are still pending. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Stoke is advancing its Phase 3 study for zorevunersen. |
| Intact |
| Enrollment not completed by end of Q2 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue of at least $10.6 million in 2025 | The company expects revenue of at least $10.6 million in 2025. | Broken | Revenue falls below $10.6 million in 2025 | Revenue: $11.255M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $10.6 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 202611,255,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-3.16 → $-3.99 · observed estimates
$0.05B → $0.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-3.16 | $47,140,727 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-3.16 | $47,140,727 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-3.16 | $47,140,727 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-3.16 | $47,140,727 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-3.09 | $46,504,360 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-3.16 | $47,140,727 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-3.16 | $47,140,727 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-3.09 | $46,504,360 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-3.16 | $47,140,727 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-3.09 | $46,504,360 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-3.16 | $47,140,727 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-3.23 | $44,037,333 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-3.23 | $44,037,333 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-3.34 | $48,104,360 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-3.52 | $40,867,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-3.45 | $47,855,000 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-3.45 | $47,855,000 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-3.52 | $40,867,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-3.52 | $40,867,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-3.52 | $40,867,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-3.52 | $40,867,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-3.52 | $40,867,500 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-3.52 | $40,867,500 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-3.52 | $40,867,500 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-3.52 | $40,867,500 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-3.52 | $40,867,500 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-3.52 | $40,867,500 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-3.54 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-3.58 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-3.58 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-3.59 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-3.68 | $44,826,484 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-3.83 | $45,134,177 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-3.83 | $45,134,177 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-3.83 | $45,134,177 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-3.99 | $47,550,100 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-3.99 | $47,550,100 | 10 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.