Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$29.81-0.60%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STOK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 356.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 44.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 311.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
STOK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 3, 2026, Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter end June 30, 2026.
Why it matters: Initial data will show if STK-002 can treat ADOA. Good results could help further development.
Supportive ifInitial data shows STK-002 is safe and effective for patients.
Worry ifInitial data shows safety issues or that the treatment may not work.
Why it matters: Finishing enrollment is key for moving forward with the drug's development. This could impact future funding and partnerships.
Supportive ifFull enrollment for the Phase 3 trial of zorevunersen is announced.
Worry ifFurther delays in enrollment or failure to meet the timeline.
Why it matters: This meeting will explain the regulatory path for zorevunersen. Good feedback could boost confidence in the NDA.
Supportive ifThe FDA gives positive feedback on the data and plan for zorevunersen.
Worry ifFDA has serious concerns about the data or analysis plan.
Why it matters: Finishing enrollment means the study can start analyzing data. Delays could show recruitment problems.
Supportive ifEnrollment of 162 patients is confirmed as complete by late June 2026.
Worry ifEnrollment does not reach the target of 162 patients by the expected date.
Why it matters: Earnings reports show financial health and progress. This is key for investors.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth and good updates on operations.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows losses. It also has bad news about operations.
Why it matters: Updates on cash will show financial health and funding for operations. Strong cash helps ongoing projects.
Supportive ifCash and equivalents rise a lot from $420 million.
Worry ifCash position decreases or fails to meet expectations.
Why it matters: Initial data will show how safe and effective STK-002 is for ADOA. Good results could help further development.
Supportive ifEarly data shows it is safe and works well. This supports using higher doses.
Worry ifData shows safety issues or no effectiveness in the first group.
Why it matters: Completing the NDA submission is key for zorevunersen's path to potential FDA approval. Delays could signal issues with the data or study.
Supportive ifThe company finishes the rolling NDA submission based on good Phase 3 data.
Worry ifThe company delays the NDA submission due to negative Phase 3 data.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth speeds up, it could help Stoke's performance. The sector is currently slowing down.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth moves back toward 10% or higher.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is slowing down. It is now below 10%.
Why it matters: Biogen funding is important for Stoke's work until 2028. It impacts financial health.
Supportive ifA press release will confirm if the collaboration with Biogen continues or grows.
Worry ifAn announcement will say if the work with Biogen is cut back or ended.
Why it matters: The NDA submission is a key step for zorevunersen's FDA approval.
Supportive ifManagement confirms the NDA submission begins in Q1 2027.
Worry ifManagement delays the NDA submission beyond Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Initial data will show if STK-002 can treat ADOA. Good results could help Stoke's pipeline.
Supportive ifInitial data shows STK-002 is safe and works for ADOA patients.
Worry ifInitial data shows safety issues or that STK-002 may not work.
Why it matters: Finishing dosing will help analyze data and make future decisions. Timely completion is key for the pipeline.
Supportive ifAll cohorts in the STK-002 Phase 1 study complete dosing as scheduled.
Worry ifDosing delays or issues arise in the STK-002 Phase 1 study.
Why it matters: The meeting will align on the data package and could influence the NDA submission timeline.
Supportive ifThe FDA gives positive feedback on the data and analysis plan.
Worry ifThe FDA has major concerns about the data or analysis plan.
Why it matters: This data will be crucial for the NDA submission and could impact the drug's approval chances.
Supportive ifThe Phase 3 EMPEROR study shows less major motor seizures.
Worry ifThe data shows no clear drop in seizure frequency compared to the sham control.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$148 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $527 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,716 loss on $10,000 · 37.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.