Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$27.45+1.70%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STOK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 57.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 69.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 65 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
STOK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 29, 2026, Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter end September 30, 2026.
Why it matters: The third and fourth OSPREY cohorts may reach useful dose levels. A delay could push back the H1 2027 data.
Worry ifStoke reports that third-cohort dosing finished by the end of 2026 and the fourth cohort is underway in early 2027.
Less concerning ifThe third cohort is not complete by year-end 2026, or fourth-cohort dosing does not start in early 2027.
Why it matters: The trial tests whether zorevunersen lowers major motor seizures and helps cognition and behavior. The results are key to the planned U.S. filing.
Watch forAt Week 28, Q3 2027 results show fewer major motor seizures with zorevunersen than with sham. At Week 52, scores improve in all four planned Vineland-3 subdomains.
Also watch forAt Week 28, seizure results do not favor zorevunersen over sham. Or Week 52 scores show no benefit across the four Vineland-3 subdomains.
Why it matters: The FDA meeting aligned on how Stoke will assess cognition and behavior. The planned filing still depends on EMPEROR results.
Watch forStoke starts the rolling U.S. NDA filing in Q1 2027 and completes it in H2 2027, as planned.
Also watch forStoke delays the Q1 2027 filing, or says the FDA needs more data before it can complete the filing in H2 2027.
Why it matters: Stoke reported $358.8 million in cash and expects it to fund operations into early 2028. Rising costs could shorten that runway.
Worry ifA later company update still says cash will fund operations into early 2028. It reports no new financing.
Less concerning ifStoke reports cash will not fund operations into early 2028. Or it announces new financing before then.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$169 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $512 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,133 loss on $10,000 · 41.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: These early results will show if STK-002 can reach useful doses, with signs of safety and better vision.
Watch forH1 2027 data show no serious or severe safety events in the later dose groups. They also report a measured vision benefit.
Also watch forLater dose groups have a serious or severe safety event, or the data show no vision benefit.