Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Sutro Biopharma Inc (STRO)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.94+4.52%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for STRO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating loss improves to better than -$30M | Operating loss was $29.66M in 2026-Q1. | Intact | operating loss worsens beyond -$30M | Operating income: $-29.888M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating loss better than -$30M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 12, 2026-29,888,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth company built around clinical development, not an established earnings compounder. The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, but elevated risk and medium confidence mean progress depends on meeting development milestones and maintaining funding.
The valuation evidence is mixed: STRO is described as cheap versus peers, while also carrying a 37% premium to peers, and model confidence is low. The priced-in assessment is justified with low fragility, but the negative expectations gap and recent earnings misses leave limited clarity on what expectations the market already assumes.
Near term, losses and a high risk of another earnings miss remain important concerns, despite operating expenses falling from the prior year's level. Over the multi-year view, management is advancing STRO-004 and its next-generation antibody-drug conjugates, while reporting a cash runway into at least Q2 2028; cash declined in the latest quarter, and expense-control progress is mixed.
The thesis depends on continued clinical progress, including advancement of STRO-006 and the planned STRO-227 IND submission, while keeping enough cash to fund operations. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add near-term pressure, while strong results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, STRO's long-term thesis rests on pipeline execution and cash discipline, with elevated earnings and development risk still unresolved. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Sutro Biopharma Inc's published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline less than -10% YoY. |
| Broken |
| revenue decline worse than -10% YoY |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
ATM stock sale program remains terminated | The company ended its ATM stock sale program to focus on financial health. | Under Pressure | ATM program restarted or new dilution program announced | ATM terminated Mar 2026, but new 7.9M share offering Feb 2026 Feb 2026 underwriting agreement for 7,868,383 shares; ATM terminated Mar 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-6.88 → $-6.39 · observed estimates
$0.03B → $0.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-6.88 | $31,558,370 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-6.88 | $31,558,370 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-7.39 | $34,427,315 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-6.88 | $31,558,370 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-6.88 | $31,558,370 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-7.39 | $34,427,315 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-7.39 | $34,427,315 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-6.88 | $31,558,370 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-7.39 | $34,427,315 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-6.88 | $31,558,370 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-6.88 | $31,558,370 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-7.39 | $34,427,315 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-7.39 | $34,427,315 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-6.88 | $31,558,370 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-7.39 | $34,427,315 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-7.39 | $34,427,315 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-6.87 | $31,558,370 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-7.39 | $34,427,315 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-7.39 | $34,427,315 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-7.39 | $34,427,315 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-7.39 | $34,427,315 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-7.39 | $34,427,315 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-7.39 | $34,427,315 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-7.39 | $34,427,315 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-7.39 | $34,427,315 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-6.39 | $34,224,426 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-6.39 | $34,228,009 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-6.39 | $34,228,009 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-6.39 | $34,228,009 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-6.39 | $34,228,009 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-6.39 | $34,228,009 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-6.39 | $34,228,009 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-6.39 | $34,228,009 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-6.39 | $34,228,009 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-6.39 | $34,228,009 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-6.39 | $34,228,009 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-6.39 | $34,228,009 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-6.39 | $34,228,009 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-6.39 | $34,228,009 | 8 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.