Sutro Biopharma Inc (STRO)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.94+4.52%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STRO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -73.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -22.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
STRO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-12
of this report, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Exchange Act or under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “ Securities Act ”), except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: An IND filing would keep Sutro's first wholly owned dual-payload drug on its stated 2026 path.
Supportive ifSutro reports that it filed the STRO-227 IND with the FDA by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifSutro says the STRO-227 IND filing has moved beyond 2026 or has been paused.
Why it matters: Expansion plans can show whether early responses and tolerability support a larger study. The current trial is still finding its best dose.
Supportive ifBy June 30, 2027, Sutro starts expansion cohorts and gives a dose choice between 4 and 5 mg/kg.
Worry ifExpansion cohorts have not started by June 30, 2027, or Sutro reports dose limits that block a 4 or 5 mg/kg plan.
Why it matters: A first patient dose would move Sutro's second clinical program from plans into human testing.
Supportive ifSutro or a trial registry confirms that the first patient received STRO-006 by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifNo first patient dose is reported by December 31, 2026, or Sutro delays the trial beyond 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$265 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $882 loss on $10,000 · 8.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,832 loss on $10,000 · 78.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.