Sutro Biopharma Inc (STRO)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.07-2.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STRO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -54.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -19.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
STRO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-12
of this report, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Exchange Act or under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “ Securities Act ”), except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Extending the cash runway is vital for Sutro to fund ongoing trials and operations. This affects their ability to execute on their plans.
Supportive ifManagement confirms cash runway extended to mid-2027 or beyond.
Worry ifCash runway guidance is lower. This may mean funding problems ahead.
Why it matters: Cutting operating costs helps the company make more money. News will show if they are doing well.
Watch forOperating costs are lower than last quarter.
Also watch forOperating expenses go up or stay the same. This shows poor cost management.
Why it matters: Improved operating expenses could show that Sutro is managing costs better. This would be a positive sign for investors.
Supportive ifOperating expenses drop by over 10% from Q1 2026.
Worry ifOperating expenses increase or stay the same compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Managing expenses helps cut losses. Better expenses can show stronger financial health.
Supportive ifOperating expenses decrease further, leading to a smaller loss than -$29.66M in Q2.
Worry ifIf operating expenses go up or stay high, losses will increase.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$284 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $876 loss on $10,000 · 8.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,094 loss on $10,000 · 50.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Terminating the ATM program could signal a shift in capital strategy. This may improve investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement announces the end of the ATM program.
Worry ifManagement confirms the ATM program will continue as is.
Why it matters: Initial data will show how well STRO-004 works and its safety. This could impact investor confidence and future funding.
Supportive ifThey will report safety and early activity data by mid-2026.
Worry ifNo data reported by mid-2026 or data shows poor safety or efficacy.
Why it matters: Entering trials shows progress in Sutro's pipeline and potential for new revenue streams.
Supportive ifSTRO-006 officially enters clinical trials by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifSTRO-006 does not enter trials by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: An IND submission for STRO-227 shows progress in Sutro's dual-payload ADC plan.
Supportive ifSTRO-227 IND submission occurs as planned in 2026.
Worry ifSTRO-227 IND submission is delayed beyond 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in cash could affect Sutro's ability to fund operations and trials.
Worry ifCash position remains stable or increases after Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCash position drops well below $164.3 million.