Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-28 · fmp
Strattec Security Corp. (STRT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$64.14+0.99%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.76 → 5.55 EPS · FY ending Jun 28, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for STRT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Execute share buybacks up to $40 million | A supporting condition in Strattec Security Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is up to $40 million authorized buyback. | Intact | buyback program is canceled or materially reduced | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a smaller-cap improvement story, with a potential cost-structure recovery and strategic growth as the main supports. The multi-year view is on watch: management execution is stable, but recent financial performance is neutral and risk is elevated.
The valuation model describes STRT as cheap versus peers, while its expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually concentrated expectations.
Near term, earnings beats on October 29 and August 25 are positive signs, but company momentum has weakened and recent performance remains below its industry cohort. Gross margin improved to 16.5% in 2027-Q1 from 15.6% in the prior quarter, yet remained below management’s 18% to 20% long-term goal; lower sales, premium freight, and labor costs still weigh on results.
The multi-year thesis depends on further cost improvement and evidence that strategic growth and customer diversification move beyond stated priorities. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as GPC, BWA, and APTV would support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.
STRT has a cheap-versus-peers valuation and measurable margin progress, but the improvement story remains incomplete and near-term risk is elevated. The 1-to-3-year view hinges on sustained execution and whether sales and margins improve without a deterioration in guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow stays about $10 million. |
| Intact |
| free cash flow falls below $10 million next quarter |
Free cash flow: $9.58M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $10 million. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 20269,580,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain gross margin between 18% and 20% | A primary condition in Strattec Security Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is 18% to 20%. | Broken | gross margin falls below 18% next quarter | Gross margin: 16.52% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: 18% to 20%. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 202616.518679 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Limit revenue decline to no more than 3% to 4% year-over-year | A primary condition in Strattec Security Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is no more than 3% to 4% decline YoY. | Under Pressure | revenue decline exceeds 4% YoY next quarter | Revenue: $147.197M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: no more than 3% to 4% decline YoY. Target and observation units differ. Oct 30, 2026147,197,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.23 → $5.55 · observed estimates
$0.59B → $0.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | $5.23 | $586,521,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.23 | $586,521,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.23 | $586,521,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.05 | $570,056,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.05 | $570,056,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.05 | $570,056,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.05 | $570,056,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.76 | $575,528,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.67 | $576,666,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.55 | $572,166,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.