Strattec Security Corp. (STRT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$75.84+1.91%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STRT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -32.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
STRT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On May 7, 2026, Strattec Security Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued a press release (the “ Press Release ”) announcing results for the fiscal third quarter ended March 29, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Also on May 7, 2026, the Company first provided investors with a supplemental presentation regarding fiscal third quarter earnings and other current financial information, atta…
Why it matters: Good sales growth would show recovery in the car industry and higher demand.
Supportive ifQ4 sales growth turns positive year over year.
Worry ifQ4 sales continue to decline year over year.
Why it matters: A larger drop shows problems in the car market. This could hurt future growth.
Worry ifQ4 sales decline year over year worse than -4.5%.
Less concerning ifQ4 sales decline year over year better than -4.5%.
Why it matters: Good growth may show demand is coming back. This could help Strattec's sales.
Supportive ifRevenue in the car sector is growing after recent drops.
Worry ifRevenue in the car sector keeps going down.
Why it matters: Active share buybacks show management believes in the company's value and health.
Supportive if$10 million or more in shares repurchased within the next quarter.
Worry ifNo share repurchases reported in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$164 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $420 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,131 loss on $10,000 · 31.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stable revenue growth shows good management of issues in the car industry.
Watch forQuarterly revenue grows or stays above $151 million.
Also watch forQuarterly revenue drops below $137 million for two straight quarters.
Why it matters: Stable revenue shows Strattec is handling problems in the car industry.
Supportive ifRevenue either stays the same or gets better compared to last quarter.
Worry ifRevenue keeps falling because more EV programs are canceled.
Why it matters: A continued decline in revenue from EV cancellations shows challenges in the automotive market. It may impact future growth.
Worry ifRevenue declines more than 4.5% year over year due to EV program cancellations.
Less concerning ifRevenue stays steady or grows each year. This happens even with EV program cancellations.
Why it matters: Winning new OEM platforms is key for future revenue and business strength.
Supportive ifThey announced a new contract for an OEM vehicle platform.
Worry ifThey keep announcing OEM program cancellations or no new contracts.
Why it matters: Gross margin below 18% signals Strattec is struggling to manage costs. This affects profitability.
Worry ifGross margin was below 18% for two quarters in a row.
Less concerning ifGross margin exceeds 20% for the next quarter.
Why it matters: More cancellations could hurt revenue and show bigger problems in the car market.
Worry ifThey announced more cancellations of EV programs that will hurt revenue.
Less concerning ifNo new cancellations of EV programs were reported.
Why it matters: Hitting the 18% gross margin target is key for making money long-term. It shows how well management controls costs and prices.
Supportive ifGross margin improves to 17% or higher in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifGross margin remains below 16% in the next quarterly report.