STUBHUB HOLDINGS INC (STUB)
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.60+1.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue growth about 17% in FY26: FY26 revenue estimate cut 3.1% to ~$2.02B, missing 16.7% growth target.
StubHub is growing revenue about 17% next year. Gross margin is expected near $10 billion in 2026. The company is launching new festival programs to drive growth. Recent earnings beats show improving execution.
StubHub is still loss-making and faces legal risks. Earnings estimates have been cut recently. Growth could slow below analyst expectations.
The price is about 33% above our fair value near $10. Analysts expect 17% revenue growth, which is priced in. Our fair value is 19% above the Street median, reflecting some optimism.
Breaks if: gross margin falls below $9.9 billion in FY26
Breaks if: festival programs fail to contribute to growth or are discontinued
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 16.7% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a turnaround investment with a focus on improving financial metrics. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has been mixed, and the company is under watch due to consecutive earnings misses.
The market seems to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that investors are not overly optimistic about STUB's near-term performance. The valuation suggests a durable premium compared to peers, reflecting some confidence despite recent challenges.
Management is on track to meet its goals for Gross Merchandise Sales and Adjusted EBITDA, showing positive growth trends. However, the near-term risk of missing earnings again could impact investor sentiment and confidence.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GOOGL, GOOG, and META. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a tailwind for STUB, while any downturn in their performance could pose significant risks.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, STUB's success will depend on its ability to execute on its financial targets amidst sector challenges. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. Analysts lowered revenue growth expectations for STUB. They expressed concerns about post-World Cup demand and regulatory uncertainties. However, the company reiterated its 2026 Gross Merchandise Sales outlook. It raised the forecast to $10.1 billion to $10.3 billion.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.