STUBHUB HOLDINGS INC (STUB)
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.60+1.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STUB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -66.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 11.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 77.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
STUB — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 12, 2026, StubHub Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange A…
Why it matters: These results will show if StubHub is on track to meet its full-year guidance. Strong results would support growth expectations.
Supportive ifQ2 GMS is over $2.5 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is over $100 million.
Worry ifQ2 GMS falls below $2.3 billion or adjusted EBITDA is below $80 million.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would show strong growth momentum and support the full-year outlook.
Supportive ifQ2 Gross Merchandise Sales reported at or above $2.5 billion.
Worry ifQ2 Gross Merchandise Sales were below $2.4 billion.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong profits and good operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reported at or above $400 million for the full year 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA below $400 million for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Lower net leverage means better financial health and less debt risk.
Supportive ifNet leverage reported below 3.0x as of year-end 2026.
Worry ifNet leverage reported at or above 3.0x as of year-end 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$243 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $950 loss on $10,000 · 9.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,232 loss on $10,000 · 72.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Continued debt reduction shows financial health and supports long-term growth plans.
Supportive ifManagement says they will pay off at least $100 million in debt in Q3.
Worry ifNo debt repayments reported or an increase in total debt.
Why it matters: Less demand may mean problems in ticket sales and lower revenue.
Worry ifReports show a big drop in ticket sales or attendance at live events.
Less concerning ifReports show continued strong demand for live events.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong demand and supports the company's growth story.
Supportive ifGMS reported at or above $10.1 billion for the full year 2026.
Worry ifGMS reported below $9.9 billion for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Reducing debt would make StubHub's balance sheet stronger. This would improve financial stability.
Supportive ifStubHub announces an extra debt payment of over $100 million in Q2.
Worry ifNo debt reduction announcements or an increase in debt levels.
Why it matters: If the sector starts growing, it could help StubHub's performance. This would signal a recovery.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for a year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is still negative. This shows a continued decline.
Why it matters: These plans could increase future revenue. They may also help StubHub's market position.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new partnership. They will start a pilot program for open distribution.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in starting new plans are reported.
Why it matters: A drop below this level may signal weakening demand for live events.
Worry ifQ3 Gross Merchandise Sales were below $2.5 billion.
Less concerning ifQ3 Gross Merchandise Sales were above $2.5 billion.
Why it matters: Falling below this level may show problems with making money and managing costs.
Worry ifIn Q3, Adjusted EBITDA was less than $100 million.
Less concerning ifIn Q3, Adjusted EBITDA was more than $100 million.
Why it matters: More than $100 million in repayments would show strong commitment to reducing leverage.
Supportive ifDebt repayments in Q3 exceed $100 million.
Worry ifDebt repayments in Q3 are less than $100 million.