STUBHUB HOLDINGS INC (STUB)
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$6.28-4.70%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STUB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -68.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 286 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 12.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 80.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 15 industry peers
STUB — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-14
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 14, 2026, StubHub Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) and its subsidiary StubHub Holdco Sub, LLC entered into Amendment No. 7 to Credit Agreement, dated as of October 14, 2026 (the “Amendment”), which amends the Credit Agreement dated as of February 13, 2020 (as amended pursuant to that certain Incremental Facility Amendment No. 1, dated as of August 24, 2020, that certain Refinancing Amendment No. 2 to Credit Agreement, dated as of July 26, 2…
Why it matters: Management named these as new ways to grow. No revenue impact has been reported yet.
Supportive ifA company report names revenue from open distribution or advertising. It gives a dollar amount or share of revenue.
Worry ifThe next two quarterly reports give no launch, partner, or revenue detail for either initiative.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose 94% to $105.7 million. Q3 results will test the full-year target.
Supportive ifOn November 10, StubHub reports Q3 adjusted EBITDA of at least $100 million. It keeps its 2026 outlook at $400–$420 million or raises it.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $90 million. Or the company cuts its 2026 outlook below $400 million.
Why it matters: StubHub cut debt by $1.1 billion over 12 months and lowered net leverage to 3.0x. Further progress would ease debt pressure.
Supportive ifThe next report shows a debt payment beyond the announced July $100 million payment and net leverage below 3.0x.
Worry ifThe next report shows net leverage above 3.0x, with no further debt payment reported.
Why it matters: Q2 GMS reached $3.1 billion, up 34% year over year. Q3 growth tests the raised full-year GMS outlook.
Supportive ifOn November 10, StubHub reports Q3 GMS above $3.1 billion and keeps its 2026 GMS outlook at $10.1–$10.3 billion or raises it.
Worry ifQ3 GMS is below $3.1 billion, or the company cuts its 2026 GMS outlook below $10.1 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$222 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $775 loss on $10,000 · 7.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,274 loss on $10,000 · 72.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.