Seagate Technology (STX)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-07-07
$827.64-4.68%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $827.64. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $828 the market pays 67× p/e — above the 43× p/e peer median but in line with its own 66× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $572 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $515–$1,600. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $850.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $332.15 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $326.41 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $290.32 | 21.4 | 14.13 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$515.00 – $1600.00 (median $850.00) · 18 analysts · as of 2026-06-29
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 1056% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 7.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $5.45/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $229.04 |
| 21.6 |
| 10.58 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $533.82 | 43.0 | 12.41 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $232.20 | 4.8 | 48.08 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $820.16 | 66.1 | 12.41 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $580.58 | 43.0 | 13.50 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $348.34 | 21.6 | 16.09 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $403.65 | 4.8 | 83.58 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $460.68 | 21.6 | 21.28 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $533.82 | 4.8 | 110.53 | Analyst | medium |