Seagate Technology (STX)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-05
$466.53-16.25%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 54.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
STX — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-27
Regulation FD Disclosure. On October 27, 2026 , the Board of Directors of the Company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.76 per share, which will be payable on January 7, 2027 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on December 23, 2026 . Seagate has issued a Supplemental Financial Information document. The Supplemental Financial Information is available on Seagate’s Investor Relations website at investors.seagate.com. Seagate management will hold a public webcast on Octob…
Why it matters: The board declared a $0.76 quarterly dividend. Payment on the stated date would confirm this near-term cash return.
Supportive ifSeagate pays $0.76 per share on January 7, 2027.
Worry ifSeagate delays, cuts, or cancels that payment.
Why it matters: Seagate reported $1.5 billion in free cash flow for fiscal Q1 2027. Lower cash flow could limit debt cuts and shareholder returns.
Worry ifA reported quarter has free cash flow below $1.5 billion.
Less concerning ifA reported quarter has free cash flow of at least $1.5 billion.
Why it matters: Seagate guided to $4.8 billion, plus or minus $100 million. A result below that range would break the near-term growth path.
Worry ifFiscal Q2 2027 revenue is below $4.7 billion, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifFiscal Q2 2027 revenue is at least $4.7 billion.
Why it matters: HAMR is central to Seagate's storage roadmap. A clear shipment or customer milestone would show progress beyond strong sales.
Supportive ifSeagate says in a filing or earnings release that a new customer qualified Mozaic, or HAMR shipments grew.
Worry ifSeagate reports a delay, lost approval, or fewer HAMR shipments.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$317 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $826 loss on $10,000 · 8.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,733 loss on $10,000 · 57.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Seagate set a $9.20 EPS midpoint. A result below the $9.00 low end would signal weaker earnings than its guide.
Worry ifFiscal Q2 2027 non-GAAP diluted EPS is below $9.00.
Less concerning ifFiscal Q2 2027 non-GAAP diluted EPS is at least $9.00.