Seagate Technology (STX)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
$849.28+6.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 66.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 57.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers
STX — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-28
Regulation FD Disclosure. On July 28, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.74 per share, which will be payable on October 7, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on September 24, 2026. Seagate has issued a Supplemental Financial Information document. The Supplemental Financial Information is available on Seagate’s Investor Relations website at investors.seagate.com. Seagate management will hold a public webcast on July 28,…
Why it matters: Debt issuance can affect cash flow and shareholder returns. Monitoring this helps assess financial health.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains strong despite debt issuance.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations drops a lot after issuing debt.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps pay shareholders. It also shows the company runs well.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $1 billion in a quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $800 million.
Why it matters: Seagate's strong revenue growth shows it is meeting AI storage demand. This helps its growth plan.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 30% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: A decline in free cash flow could raise concerns about Seagate's financial health and capital returns.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $900 million for the fiscal year.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow is over $900 million. This shows strong cash generation.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$318 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $733 loss on $10,000 · 7.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,181 loss on $10,000 · 31.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New AI product announcements may show Seagate's growth plans and market strength.
Supportive ifLook for news about a new AI storage product line or partnership.
Worry ifNo new AI-driven product announcements in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The success of HAMR technology is important for Seagate's growth and plans.
Watch forManagement says they are making progress on 4+ TB HAMR drives. Qualification has started.
Also watch forThere are no updates on HAMR technology. There are also delays in product qualification.
Why it matters: Starting share repurchases shows confidence in cash flow and returns to shareholders. This can help investors feel good.
Supportive ifThey will announce share repurchases later this quarter.
Worry ifThere is no announcement of share repurchases or a delay.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend may show shifts in cash flow or financial health.
Watch forDividend payment remains at $0.74 per share or increases.
Also watch forDividend payment is cut or suspended.
Why it matters: This guidance reflects management's view on continuing demand for cloud storage. It will show if growth momentum is maintained.
Supportive ifRevenue guidance meets or exceeds $4.1 billion.
Worry ifRevenue guidance falls below $4 billion.
Why it matters: Successful qualification shows Seagate can meet the growing need for cloud storage.
Supportive ifManagement confirms the 4+ TB per disk platform is qualified with a global CSP.
Worry ifThere are delays in getting qualified. This shows problems in product development.
Why it matters: Strong demand from AI can drive growth and validate Seagate's product innovations.
Watch forSeagate reports a big increase in sales from AI applications.
Also watch forSales growth does not come from AI applications. This raises questions about the strategy.
Why it matters: Resuming share buybacks signals confidence in cash flow and financial health.
Supportive ifManagement says they plan to start share repurchases later this quarter.
Worry ifIf no share repurchases happen, it suggests worries about cash flow or market.
Why it matters: Reducing debt helps the company stay stable. It also helps with future investments.
Supportive ifManagement will announce more debt reduction after the $302 million in Q4 2026.
Worry ifNo further debt reduction is announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Nearline shipments are very important for Seagate's revenue. AI demand is driving this need.
Supportive ifNearline shipments reach 137 exabytes in Q2 2026, up 52% year-on-year.
Worry ifNearline shipments decline or grow less than 20% year-on-year.
Why it matters: Successful qualification of HAMR drives is key to capturing cloud storage demand. It shows if Seagate can meet market needs.
Supportive ifAt least three big cloud service providers will qualify HAMR products by mid-2026.
Worry ifNo new qualifications for HAMR products will happen by mid-2026.
Why it matters: This ramp is key for meeting cloud storage demand. It shows Seagate's ability to innovate and execute.
Supportive ifVolume ramp begins as planned in the first half of 2026.
Worry ifVolume ramp is delayed beyond the first half of 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend policy may show how management views cash flow and spending.
Watch forAnnouncement of an increase in the dividend payout.
Also watch forA dividend cut or suspension has been announced.