Seagate Technology (STX)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
$849.28+6.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Seagate grows revenue from AI storage demand. Revenue hit $3.11B in 2026-Q3. Profit per share is guided to $5.0 next quarter. Cash flow stays strong at $1.1B in 2026-Q3.
AI storage demand may slow due to oversupply fears. Cash returns to shareholders are mixed. The stock is down 24% from its high.
The price is about 45% above our fair value near $572. Analysts expect 52% revenue growth. Our fair value is 33% below the Street median of $850.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $2.9 billion in 2026-Q3
Breaks if: Cash flow falls below $1.0 billion in 2026-Q3
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $4.8 next quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth driven by AI and storage demand. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial results, but management's volatility introduces some uncertainty.
The market currently reflects an expensive valuation compared to peers, with a premium of 1.39 times. There is a slight expectations gap of 0.08, indicating that some positive performance is already anticipated.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management is on track with priorities like driving profitable growth and maintaining cash flow. However, there is a low miss risk, although past performance has shown potential for significant deviations.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to maintain guidance, potential Fed rate cuts, and performance from sector peers like DELL and SNDK. Any negative guidance could significantly impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Additionally, there is strong growth potential driven by AI-driven storage demand. No significant threats have emerged to counter this improved perspective.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: No progress in areal density innovation reported next year
Over the next 1 to 3 years, STX's performance will depend on management execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.