Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Sun Communities Inc (SUI)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-04
$121.24+5.15%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.35 → 3.34 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SUI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Stock Repurchase Program Execution | The company started a $1 billion stock buyback program. | Intact | Stock buyback program is canceled or materially reduced | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SUI is a real estate investment trust with a multi-year thesis tied to operating growth and disciplined capital allocation. The thesis is currently intact, although management execution is rated volatile and confidence in the assessment has eased from high to medium.
SUI trades at a 10.2% premium to peers, while the valuation model has low confidence and points to an expectations gap driven by optionality, or potential value from future opportunities. The snapshot labels the priced-in setup unjustified and fragility low, so the evidence on what the market specifically assumes is limited.
Near term, operating results are strong: third-quarter North America same-property net operating income, or NOI, grew 3.6%, and full-year growth guidance remains 4.9% to 5.3%. Portfolio results differ, with manufactured housing NOI up 6.9% and recreational vehicle NOI down 1.3%; repurchases and proceeds from the UK business sale show capital-allocation progress. The next-call guidance and continued execution matter, given the stated risk of estimate cuts and a 31% miss probability despite a quiet risk watch tier.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on sustaining same-property NOI growth and delivering on platform priorities, where the evidence of direct results is limited. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate, while weaker sector results or a guidance cut could remove support. Portfolio differences and management execution remain important swing factors.
The multi-year view remains intact on strong recent performance and capital discipline, but the peer premium, medium confidence, and uneven portfolio trends leave meaningful execution questions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It raised full-year 2026 free cash flow guidance to about $6.97 per share. |
| Intact |
| Core FFO per share growth fails to increase by $0.04 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Free Cash Flow per Share | It raised full-year 2026 free cash flow guidance to about $6.97 per share. | Intact | Free cash flow per share falls below $6.87 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase North American Same Property NOI Growth | Sun Communities focuses on growing North American rental income. | Intact | NOI growth fails to increase by 0.25% basis points in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.76 → $3.34 · observed estimates
$2.17B → $1.98B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.76 | $2,167,160,750 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.76 | $2,167,160,750 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.76 | $2,167,160,750 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.71 | $2,188,128,949 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.76 | $2,167,160,750 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.71 | $2,126,996,948 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.80 | $2,090,168,549 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.80 | $2,090,168,549 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.80 | $2,090,168,549 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.76 | $2,141,658,150 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.80 | $2,090,168,549 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.80 | $2,090,168,549 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.04 | $2,141,658,150 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.04 | $2,141,658,150 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.80 | $2,090,168,549 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.04 | $2,141,658,150 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.80 | $2,090,168,549 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.80 | $2,090,168,549 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.80 | $2,090,168,549 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.80 | $2,090,168,549 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.80 | $2,090,168,549 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.80 | $2,090,168,549 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.80 | $2,090,168,549 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.80 | $2,090,168,549 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.80 | $2,090,168,549 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.17 | $2,007,304,816 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.35 | $2,005,126,233 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.35 | $2,005,126,233 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.35 | $2,005,126,233 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.35 | $2,005,126,233 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.35 | $2,005,126,233 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.35 | $2,005,126,233 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.35 | $2,005,126,233 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.35 | $2,005,126,233 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.35 | $2,005,126,233 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.35 | $2,005,126,233 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.35 | $2,005,126,233 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.35 | $1,988,702,066 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.35 | $1,988,285,400 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.35 | $1,988,285,400 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.35 | $1,988,285,400 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.35 | $1,988,285,400 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.35 | $1,988,285,400 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.35 | $1,988,285,400 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.35 | $1,988,285,400 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.34 | $1,988,285,400 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.34 | $1,988,285,400 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.34 | $1,988,285,400 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.34 | $1,988,285,400 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.34 | $1,988,285,400 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.34 | $1,988,285,400 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.34 | $1,988,285,400 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.34 | $1,989,513,983 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.34 | $1,989,513,983 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.34 | $1,980,580,650 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.34 | $1,980,580,650 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.34 | $1,980,580,650 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.34 | $1,980,580,650 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.34 | $1,980,729,640 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.34 | $1,980,684,256 | 4 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.