Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp
Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc (SUNB)
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$80.73-3.27%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.83 → 4.84 EPS · FY ending Apr 30, 2028 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SUNB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures rise to $2.2-$2.3 billion | Capital spending is planned to rise to $2.3 billion to support growth. | Intact | Capital expenditures fall below $1.8 billion or exceed $2.5 billion in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $96M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: 2.2 to 2.3 USD_BILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 9, 202696,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SUNB is a growth-oriented equipment rental business, with expansion in specialty rentals supporting its multi-year view. The thesis is intact, though management execution and sector conditions remain important.
Valuation is described as aligned with expectations, with a premium versus peers and no flagged fragility. The expectations gap is mildly negative, suggesting the market’s assumptions may be somewhat ahead of the evidence; valuation has also risen recently.
Near term, rental revenue growth and recent earnings performance support the business, while operating cash flow and dividends show cash generation. Management raised fiscal 2027 rental equipment spending guidance, making disciplined capital allocation a key execution test; a guidance cut on the next call is a stated risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustaining profitable rental growth, especially in Specialty, while turning higher equipment spending into productive expansion. Industrial-sector signals also matter: continued strength from bellwethers could support the backdrop, while weaker results or lower guidance could remove that tailwind.
For the 1 to 3 year view, SUNB has a still-intact growth and cash-generation case, but its peer valuation premium and sector headwind leave execution as the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management targets $2 billion free cash flow in fiscal 2026. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $1.5 billion in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $744M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=2.0 USD_BILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 9, 2026744,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income stays strong near $492 million quarterly | Sunbelt Rentals grows revenue about 9% yearly with strong operating income. | Intact | Operating income falls below $400 million quarterly | Operating income: $691M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=492 USD_MILLIONS quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 9, 2026691,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 8.9% year over year | A primary condition in Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=8.9% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 11.21% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=8.9% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 9, 202611.210282 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.40 → $4.84 · observed estimates
$12.61B → $13.07B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.40 | $12,607,931,970 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.40 | $12,607,931,970 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.40 | $12,607,931,970 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.40 | $12,607,931,970 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.40 | $12,607,931,970 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.60 | $12,615,188,915 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.60 | $12,615,188,915 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.60 | $12,615,188,915 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.60 | $12,615,188,915 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.40 | $12,610,857,480 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.60 | $12,615,188,915 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.40 | $12,610,857,480 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.40 | $12,610,857,480 | 6 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.60 | $12,615,188,915 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.60 | $12,615,188,915 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.60 | $12,615,188,915 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.60 | $12,615,188,915 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.60 | $12,615,188,915 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.60 | $12,615,188,915 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.60 | $12,615,188,915 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.60 | $12,615,188,915 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.60 | $12,615,188,915 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.60 | $12,615,188,915 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.60 | $12,615,188,915 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.60 | $12,615,188,915 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.63 | $12,670,789,767 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.63 | $12,670,789,767 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.63 | $12,670,789,767 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.63 | $12,670,789,767 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.63 | $12,670,789,767 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.63 | $12,670,789,767 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.63 | $12,670,789,767 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.63 | $12,670,789,767 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.63 | $12,670,789,767 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.63 | $12,670,789,767 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.63 | $12,670,789,767 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.63 | $12,670,789,767 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.63 | $12,670,789,767 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.63 | $12,670,789,767 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.63 | $12,702,038,951 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.63 | $12,702,038,951 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.63 | $12,702,038,951 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.63 | $12,702,038,951 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.63 | $12,702,038,951 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.63 | $12,702,038,951 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.64 | $12,736,679,026 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.75 | $12,855,311,800 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.77 | $12,886,913,529 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.78 | $12,907,127,814 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.78 | $12,907,127,814 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.78 | $12,907,127,814 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.78 | $12,907,127,814 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.78 | $12,907,127,814 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.80 | $12,968,106,386 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.80 | $12,968,106,386 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.80 | $12,968,106,386 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.83 | $13,015,294,102 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.83 | $13,015,294,102 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.83 | $13,015,294,102 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.83 | $13,015,294,102 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.83 | $13,015,294,102 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.83 | $13,015,294,102 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.83 | $13,015,294,102 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.83 | $13,015,294,102 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.83 | $13,015,294,102 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.83 | $13,015,294,102 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.83 | $13,015,294,102 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.83 | $13,015,579,816 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.83 | $13,015,579,816 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.83 | $13,015,579,816 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.83 | $13,015,579,816 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.83 | $13,015,579,816 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.83 | $13,015,579,816 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.83 | $13,015,579,816 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.85 | $13,045,117,319 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.85 | $13,044,845,783 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.85 | $13,044,845,783 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.85 | $13,044,845,783 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.85 | $13,044,845,783 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.86 | $13,050,775,453 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.86 | $13,050,775,453 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.86 | $13,050,775,453 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.83 | $13,057,590,414 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.83 | $13,057,590,414 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.84 | $13,057,590,414 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.84 | $13,057,590,414 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.84 | $13,057,590,414 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.84 | $13,057,590,414 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.84 | $13,057,590,414 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.84 | $13,057,590,414 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.84 | $13,057,590,414 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.84 | $13,057,590,414 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.84 | $13,057,590,414 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.84 | $13,057,590,414 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.84 | $13,057,590,414 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.84 | $13,057,590,414 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.84 | $13,057,590,414 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.84 | $13,069,590,414 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.84 | $13,069,590,414 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.84 | $13,069,590,414 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.83 | $13,040,301,778 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.84 | $13,069,590,414 | 6 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.