Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc (SUNB)
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$68.59+3.94%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SUNB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -39.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 130 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers
SUNB — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-07-15
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information provided under
Why it matters: This acquisition helps Sunbelt grow its Specialty segment. A good integration can boost growth.
Supportive ifAn official announcement will say the deal is done. It will show early performance data.
Worry ifA delay or cancellation of the deal announcement.
Why it matters: Higher net leverage could indicate financial risk and impact future growth plans. It’s important to monitor capital structure.
Worry ifNet leverage was above the target range after the recent debt issuance.
Less concerning ifNet leverage remains within the targeted range after the debt issuance.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows management's commitment to growth and investment. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement says capital spending will be $2.2 billion or more for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending drops below $2.2 billion for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: The closing would show the company's plan to grow its Specialty offerings. It could help earnings.
Supportive ifThe Reliant Asset Management deal is complete. It is expected to increase EPS in the first year.
Worry ifThe deal does not close or has big delays.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $442 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,332 loss on $10,000 · 23.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Falling below this level could show problems with cash flow and spending.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $2 billion for fiscal 2027.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported at or above $2 billion for fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows strong demand and good efficiency. It can help investor trust.
Supportive ifRevenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong operating income growth shows good management. It can bring in more investors.
Supportive ifOperating income is above $492 million in the next quarters.
Worry ifOperating income is below $492 million in the next quarters.
Why it matters: A drop in the adjusted EBITDA margin may show higher costs or problems. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 38.7% in Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays above 38.7% in Q3.
Why it matters: Increased buybacks could signal confidence in cash flow and financial health. It may also enhance shareholder value.
Supportive ifA new share buyback program will be announced. It will exceed $1.4 billion.
Worry ifNo new buyback announcements or cuts in planned buybacks.
Why it matters: Higher leverage could mean more financial risk. It may change future spending plans.
Worry ifNet leverage is reported above the target range after the Reliant deal.
Less concerning ifNet leverage stays well within the target range after the deal.
Why it matters: This shows a slowdown in rental revenue growth. This is important for making money.
Worry ifQ3 rental revenue growth reported below 3.4% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 rental revenue growth reported above 3.4% year over year.
Why it matters: The completion will show how well the company manages its debt and capital needs.
Watch forThe company finishes the offering and uses the money for growth.
Also watch forThe offering is delayed or canceled. This shows possible market problems.
Why it matters: This growth shows if the company can keep its strong momentum in a key area.
Supportive ifNorth America Specialty segment rental revenue grows more than 5% each year.
Worry ifNorth America Specialty segment rental revenue grows less than 5% each year.
Why it matters: This ratio shows if the company keeps financial discipline after taking on debt.
Worry ifNet leverage ratio remains below 2x after the new debt issuance.
Less concerning ifNet leverage ratio exceeds 2x after the new debt issuance.
Why it matters: Changes in guidance can show if the company can support shareholder returns.
Watch forFree cash flow guidance for fiscal 2027 exceeds $2 billion.
Also watch forFree cash flow guidance for fiscal 2027 falls below $2 billion.