Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
SUNOCOCORP LLC (SUNC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
$68.73-0.58%
Close 2026-11-03 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.91 → 9.91 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SUNC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA of $867 million in 2026-Q1 | Adjusted EBITDA was $867 million in the same quarter. | Intact | adjusted EBITDA falls below $867 million in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an income-oriented energy business with a growth component, rather than a clear turnaround: management is delivering on distribution growth, EBITDA growth, and fuel expansion priorities. The long-term thesis is intact, but the signal has turned mixed and the next-quarter earnings risk is elevated.
SUNC is assessed as cheap versus peers, with the market’s expectations below the model’s baseline, though confidence in that valuation assessment is low. The priced-in evidence points to limited fragility: a turbulent sector is the main concern, rather than a combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and sector stress.
Near term, the recent earnings misses and elevated risk of another miss make results less dependable, despite strong reported performance. Across 2026-Q1 and Q2, Adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled year over year, fuel volumes rose, and quarterly distributions grew by over 10% year over year. Management’s stated priorities remain on track, but a guidance reversal after the recent increase would weaken credibility.
The multi-year view hinges on sustaining EBITDA and fuel-distribution growth while continuing at least 5% annual distribution growth. Near term, a further earnings miss or guidance cut could challenge confidence; continued strong results would support management’s record. Energy-sector bellwethers such as ENB, WMB, and KMI are also useful signals: continued strength would sustain the sector tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the business case rests on strong operating execution and continued distribution growth, balanced against earnings uncertainty and a recent listing-rule notice. The long-term thesis is intact, but near-term evidence is mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in SUNOCOCORP LLC's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% annual growth. |
| Intact |
| annual distribution growth falls below 5% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income of $644 million in 2026-Q1 | It had strong first quarter results with $644 million net income. | Intact | net income falls below $644 million in 2026-Q1 | Net income: $39M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=644 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202639,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.33 → $9.91 · observed estimates
$41.69B → $47.12B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.33 | $41,686,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.33 | $41,686,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.33 | $41,686,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.86 | $45,410,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.86 | $45,410,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.21 | $42,119,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.21 | $42,119,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.21 | $42,119,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.21 | $42,119,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.86 | $45,410,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.21 | $42,119,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.86 | $45,410,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.86 | $45,410,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.86 | $45,410,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.36 | $47,910,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.80 | $47,119,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.80 | $47,119,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.80 | $47,119,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $12.34 | $47,910,500,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.80 | $47,119,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.80 | $47,119,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.80 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.80 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.80 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.80 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.91 | $47,119,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.