SUNOCOCORP LLC (SUNC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
$79.55+2.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SUNC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -68.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 61.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 130.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SUNC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information is furnished under Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” This information, including the information contained in Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except…
Why it matters: Better revenue growth shows the energy sector is getting stronger.
Supportive ifRevenue growth exceeds 2% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Net income trends help us see the company's profits and efficiency. A decline may raise concerns.
Worry ifQ3 net income is over $283 million. This shows recovery.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income falls below $283 million, confirming a downward trend.
Why it matters: Higher fuel volumes show good market reach and success. This helps overall revenue.
Supportive ifFuel distribution volumes are over 4.1 billion gallons in Q3. This shows growth.
Worry ifFuel distribution volumes are under 4.1 billion gallons. This shows a drop.
Why it matters: Management aims for at least 5% growth. Achieving this signals confidence in cash flow and stability.
Supportive ifManagement says the annual distribution growth rate will rise above 5%.
Worry ifManagement cuts the goal for yearly distribution growth to below 5%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$105 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $222 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,341 loss on $10,000 · 13.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The leverage ratio shows the company is stable. It can handle its debt.
Watch forLeverage ratio improves to below 4.0 times by end of Q2.
Also watch forLeverage ratio increases above 4.5 times by end of Q2.
Why it matters: Growth in Adjusted EBITDA shows the company is improving its financial health. Investors want to see strong results.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is over $1 billion. This shows strong financial performance.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is below $900 million. This shows financial weakness.
Why it matters: A steady growth in distributions shows financial health. It also shows management cares about returns.
Supportive ifThe next distribution increase is at least 1.25%, maintaining the 5% growth target.
Worry ifThe next distribution increase is less than 1%, suggesting a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: A drop in net income may raise worries about profit and how well the company runs.
Worry ifQ3 net income falls below $250 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income is over $300 million. This shows recovery.