Sunrise Realty Trust, Inc. (SUNS)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.48+0.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SUNS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 20.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 45.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SUNS — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: An increase in loan commitments indicates growth and a stronger market position. This is key for future revenue.
Supportive ifTotal loan commitments will be over $604 million after the merger closes.
Worry ifLoan commitments do not change or go down. This shows market problems.
Why it matters: Hitting this number shows good performance. It also helps keep dividends stable.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings are $0.35 per share or more.
Worry ifQ2 distributable earnings fall below $0.35 per share.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong cash flow. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a cash dividend of at least $0.30 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend below $0.30 per share in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Any change in dividends can affect how investors feel. It shows financial health.
Watch forManagement says they will raise the dividend after Q2 earnings.
Also watch forManagement says they will cut the dividend or keep it the same after Q2 earnings.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$104 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $288 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,076 loss on $10,000 · 30.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company maintains its earnings momentum after the recent beat.
Supportive ifEarnings per share exceeds $0.30, continuing the positive trend from the last quarter.
Worry ifEarnings per share drops below $0.30. This shows a possible slowdown.
Why it matters: Better cash flow helps SUNS grow and stay stable.
Supportive ifCash from operations will be positive. It will be more than $1 million next quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations will stay negative. It will not improve much.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow from operations shows good finances. It also helps fund growth.
Supportive ifCash from operations stays positive in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations turns negative in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it may show a good change for Sunrise Realty Trust. This would help the company’s weak quality status.
Supportive ifReal estate sector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is moving back toward its historical highs above 7%.
Worry ifRevenue growth keeps slowing down. It stays below 5%.
Why it matters: The merger is expected to enhance stockholder value and create a larger lending platform.
Supportive ifThe merger will close in Q4 2026 as planned. Stockholder approvals are secured.
Worry ifThe merger will not close. This is due to lack of stockholder approval or regulatory issues.
Why it matters: This shows strong cash flow. It helps keep the dividend policy sustainable.
Supportive ifDistributable Earnings will be above $0.30 per share in the next quarter.
Worry ifDistributable Earnings will be below $0.30 per share. This shows cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good money management. This helps investors feel safe.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.30 for Q2.
Worry ifDividend per share is cut below $0.30.
Why it matters: Changes in PPI can impact the cost structure for commercial real estate lending.
Watch forPPI shows a decrease. This means lower costs for real estate operations.
Also watch forPPI increases, suggesting higher costs that could pressure margins.
Why it matters: The merger may lower operating costs. This could improve margins and make more money.
Supportive ifManagement says G&A expenses went down after the merger.
Worry ifOperating costs do not change or go up after the merger.
Why it matters: A rebound in sector growth could improve SUNS's performance and outlook.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up above 7% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.