Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Service Properties Trust (SVC)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.28+1.13%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SVC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain CAPEX guidance between $120M and $140M for 2026 | SVC plans $120M to $140M in capital spending for 2026. | Intact | CAPEX falls below $120M or above $140M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $76.863M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $120M and <= $140M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202676,863,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a challenged real estate business with an execution-dependent, higher-risk long-term thesis, rather than a proven durable compounder. The thesis state is watch: the signal has improved from cautious to mixed, but recent performance remains weak and below its industry cohort.
SVC is valued cheaply versus peers, but the model has low confidence and the expectations gap is negative. That suggests the low relative valuation does not by itself establish that the market has become overly pessimistic; the priced-in signal is tagged justified, with low fragility.
Near term, revenue delivery is a concern: quarterly revenue declined from 2025-Q3 to 2026-Q1, while management has kept its 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDAre guidance unchanged. Management has also maintained capital expenditure guidance and the small quarterly dividend, but losses and negative operating income leave execution risks elevated.
Over the next year, the key test is whether SVC can meet its 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDAre guidance despite the recent revenue decline. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate, while a guidance cut or weaker results from sector peers could remove support for the thesis.
For a 1-3 year view, SVC remains a watch-stage, execution-dependent thesis: its low valuation versus peers is balanced by losses, weak recent performance, and elevated risk. Progress toward guidance and the real estate rate backdrop are the main swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company keeps paying a small dividend of $0.01 per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $0.01 in FY26 |
Dividend per share: $0.05 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.01 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20260.05 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 2026 revenue guidance of $500M to $520M | A primary condition in Service Properties Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >= $500M and <= $520M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $500M in FY26 | Revenue: $399.52M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $500M and <= $520M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026399,520,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.15 → $-1.04 · observed estimates
$1.55B → $1.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.15 | $1,546,259,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.15 | $1,546,259,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.15 | $1,546,259,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.15 | $1,546,259,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.15 | $1,546,259,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.15 | $1,546,259,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.15 | $1,546,259,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.15 | $1,546,259,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.15 | $1,546,259,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.15 | $1,546,259,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.15 | $1,546,259,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.15 | $1,546,259,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.15 | $1,546,259,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.15 | $1,546,259,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.15 | $1,547,902,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.15 | $1,547,902,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.14 | $1,547,902,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.14 | $1,547,902,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.11 | $1,559,035,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.14 | $1,547,902,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.14 | $1,547,902,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.14 | $1,547,902,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.14 | $1,547,902,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.14 | $1,547,902,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.14 | $1,547,902,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.04 | $1,271,119,204 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.02 | $1,317,101,763 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.02 | $1,317,101,763 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.02 | $1,317,101,763 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.02 | $1,317,101,763 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.02 | $1,317,101,763 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.02 | $1,267,770,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.02 | $1,267,770,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.04 | $1,270,757,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.