Service Properties Trust (SVC)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.610.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SVC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -84.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -18.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 66.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SVC — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, Service Properties Trust, or the Company, issued a summary press release and a detailed earnings presentation announcing the Company's financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Copies of the Company’s summary press release and detailed earnings presentation are furnished as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 hereto, respectively.
Why it matters: Hitting revenue goals shows management can grow the company. This builds investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDAre for Q2 2026 meets or exceeds the guidance range of $500M to $520M.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDAre falls below the guidance range of $500M to $520M.
Why it matters: Meeting revenue goals shows recovery and growth. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifRevenue reaches between $500M and $520M for 2026.
Worry ifRevenue stays below $500M for 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows financial stability. This helps build investor trust.
Watch forDividend per share stays at $0.01 or goes up. This shows good cash flow.
Also watch forDividend cut or suspension announced. This shows cash flow problems.
Why it matters: The dividend shows that the company is stable. This is important despite recent losses.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.01 for the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend per share is cut below $0.01.
Why it matters: Successful sales of non-core hotels can improve SVC's cash flow and liquidity.
Supportive ifThey announced the sale of at least 15 hotels. These hotels have negative EBITDA.
Worry ifThere is no progress on hotel sales. There are delays in planned capital recycling projects.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can impact interest rates and SVC's borrowing costs.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates, leading to higher borrowing costs for SVC.
Also watch forFOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them, easing SVC's borrowing costs.
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue target would show progress in achieving 2026 guidance. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at or above $500M.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is under $480M. This shows ongoing revenue problems.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows good capital management. It helps future growth.
Supportive ifCapital spending is between $120M and $140M.
Worry ifCapital spending is over $140M. This may mean they are spending too much.
Why it matters: Successful sales would help cash flow. They would also aid in reducing debt.
Supportive ifThere is news of hotel sales that bring in at least $116M.
Worry ifNo hotel sales have happened. This shows possible cash flow problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$162 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $452 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,907 loss on $10,000 · 59.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.