Service Properties Trust (SVC)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.28+1.13%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SVC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -86.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -20.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 65.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
SVC — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, Service Properties Trust, or the Company, issued a summary press release and a detailed earnings presentation announcing the Company's financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Copies of the Company’s summary press release and detailed earnings presentation are furnished as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 hereto, respectively.
Why it matters: SVC says spending should ease after years of hotel work. Higher spending could delay cash savings.
Worry ifSVC raises its 2026 capital spending guidance above $140 million. Or SVC reports spending above that level.
Less concerning ifSVC keeps 2026 capital spending guidance at $120 million to $140 million and reports spending within that range.
Why it matters: SVC reported hotel RevPAR growth above the industry through April. Continued gains can support hotel revenue as renovations end.
Supportive ifSVC reports hotel RevPAR growth above the industry rate in a later update.
Worry ifSVC reports hotel RevPAR growth below the industry rate or a decline from the prior year.
Why it matters: SVC has set 2026 revenue guidance of $500 million to $520 million. The report can show whether results are on track.
Watch forThe November 4 report keeps full-year revenue guidance at $500 million to $520 million. It supports adjusted EBITDAre guidance.
Also watch forThe report cuts full-year revenue guidance to below $500 million. Or it cuts adjusted EBITDAre guidance below its prior range.
Why it matters: SVC links hotel sales to lower debt and more cash. Sale proceeds below the stated amount would weaken that plan.
Supportive ifSVC completes hotel sales and reports proceeds of at least $116 million.
Worry ifSVC reports less than $116 million in proceeds, or says planned hotel sales have stalled.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$113 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $441 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,031 loss on $10,000 · 50.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: SVC has kept the dividend at $0.01 per share despite losses. A cut would show less room to pay shareholders.
Watch forSVC declares a quarterly dividend of at least $0.01 per share.
Also watch forSVC cuts or suspends its quarterly dividend below $0.01 per share.