Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.49+10.02%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.60 → 0.60 EPS · FY ending Apr 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SWBI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Consistent dividend payments | A supporting condition in Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Dividend per share >= $0.13 per quarter through 2026-Q3. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.13 in any quarter through 2026-Q3 | Dividend per share: $0.13 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.13 per quarter through 2026-Q3. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 3, 20260.13 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 3, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a product-driven industrial business with recent strong financial performance, but fragile earnings quality and an elevated risk profile make the multi-year view less dependable. The thesis is currently intact, although confidence has eased from high to medium.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to SWBI being cheap versus peers, while another indicates a substantial premium, and the expectations gap is negative. The pricing tag says the fragility is justified rather than concentrated, so the evidence does not show that the market is fully pricing in a broader weak-execution scenario.
Near-term results may remain uneven: third-quarter sales were lower than the prior quarter, while management expects fiscal 2027 revenue growth of about 5% to 7%. New products made up 37.5% of fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue, but the latest quarter does not isolate innovation’s contribution; a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. The announced acquisition and equity-securities filing add capital-allocation uncertainty, while the evidence on the dividend is limited.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on delivering the fiscal 2027 growth outlook and sustaining product demand without a guidance cut. Sector conditions are another swing factor: continued strength among the cited industrial bellwethers would support the backdrop, while weaker results or outlooks could remove that support. The acquisition’s effect is unclear in the evidence provided.
For the 1-to-3-year view, recent results and product contribution keep the long-term thesis intact, but confidence is moderate and valuation signals conflict. Revenue execution, guidance, and sector conditions remain key uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Consistent with our capital allocation strategy, our board of directors has authorized a $0.13 per share quarterly dividend, which will be paid to stockholders of record on September 17, 2026, with payment to be made on October 1, 2026."” “Consistent with our capital allocation strategy, our board of directors has authorized a $0.13 per share quarterly dividend, which will be paid to stockholders of record on July 1, 2026, with payment to be made on July 15, 2026.””
Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026Operating income growth supports profitability and capital returns | Profit margins improve with operating income rising from $4.7M to $6.7M in recent quarters. | Intact | Operating income falls below $4.7M in 2026-Q3 | Operating income: $4.217M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $6.7M in 2026-Q3. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 3, 20264,217,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Consistent with our capital allocation strategy, our board of directors has authorized a $0.13 per share quarterly dividend, which will be paid to stockholders of record on September 17, 2026, with payment to be made on October 1, 2026."” “Consistent with our capital allocation strategy, our board of directors has authorized a $0.13 per share quarterly dividend, which will be paid to stockholders of record on July 1, 2026, with payment to be made on July 15, 2026.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue growth driven by healthy firearm demand | Smith & Wesson grows revenue about 14% yearly, driven by steady firearm demand. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in Q4 2026 | Revenue growth: 0% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY growth in Q4 2026 revenue. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 3, 20260 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.60 → $0.60 · observed estimates
$0.57B → $0.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.60 | $571,894,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.