Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.49+10.02%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SWBI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 2.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers
SWBI — capital allocation — Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities
Dated 2026-10-21
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, the Company issued to the Seller shares of Common Stock as a portion of the Merger Consideration. The information contained in Items 1.01 and 2.01 of this Current Report on Form 8-K is incorporated by reference into this
Why it matters: The deal price assumes $2.5 million in yearly savings. Reaching that amount would support the case for more earnings gains.
Supportive ifA company update confirms Savage has reached at least $2.5 million in yearly savings.
Worry ifA company update reports less than $2.5 million in yearly savings, or says the savings plan has slipped.
Why it matters: Management kept its FY27 sales growth goal at 5% to 7%. The next report can show whether sales are on that path.
Watch forThe Dec. 3 earnings release keeps FY27 revenue growth guidance at 5% to 7%, or raises it.
Also watch forThe Dec. 3 earnings release cuts FY27 revenue growth guidance below 5%.
Why it matters: Management tied its near-term sales view to strong demand. Sales below that mark would challenge the demand story.
Watch forThe Dec. 3 earnings release reports Q2 sales at least 10% above the same quarter last year.
Also watch forThe Dec. 3 earnings release reports Q2 sales growth below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Smith & Wesson said Savage should add about $0.07 per share for the full year, before purchase accounting. A miss would weaken the deal case.
Watch forA company filing or earnings release shows Savage adds about $0.07 per share to FY27 earnings. This excludes purchase accounting.
Also watch forA company filing or earnings release shows Savage adds less than $0.07 per share, or reduces FY27 earnings.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $301 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,639 loss on $10,000 · 26.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Smith & Wesson said Gemtech sales rose 95.6% in early 2026 after the fee change. Continued growth would support this new product line.
Supportive ifA company update reports Gemtech suppressor sales growth above 0% year over year after the Jan. 1, 2026 fee change.
Worry ifA company update says Gemtech suppressor sales are flat or lower than a year ago after the fee change.