Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.89+5.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SWBI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -41.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 52.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Review the full earnings evidenceWhy it matters: The dividend shows how well the company uses its money. It also shows its financial health.
Watch forDividend increases to $0.15 per share.
Also watch forDividend remains at $0.13 per share or decreases.
Why it matters: Better gross margins mean lower costs and higher efficiency.
Supportive ifGross margin exceeds 30% in Q1 2027.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 28% in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Steady growth in operating income shows good cost management. This helps with spending plans.
Supportive ifOperating income increases from $6.7M in 2026-Q3 to above $7.5M in 2026-Q4.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $6.7M in 2026-Q4.
Why it matters: Trends in industry demand will impact Smith & Wesson's growth and revenue.
Watch forManagement says demand for firearms is strong and growing in fiscal 2027.
Also watch forManagement says demand for firearms is dropping in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Strong demand would show that management expects good growth in fiscal 2027.
Supportive ifFirearm industry demand metrics show growth of at least 5% year over year in Q1 2027.
Worry ifFirearm industry demand metrics show a decline or flat growth in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost control and efficiency. This helps the company make more money.
Supportive ifGross profit margins rise each year, even with ongoing cost pressures.
Worry ifGross profit margin declines or remains flat amid rising costs.
Why it matters: This report will provide updates on revenue, profit, and cost management. It is key for investors.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth and profit margins improving.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue decline or profit margins shrinking.
Why it matters: Higher operating costs may mean problems and less profit.
Worry ifOperating expenses remain at or below 20% of sales in Q1 2027.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses are over 20% of sales in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: This guidance shows management's confidence in demand for firearms. It signals continued revenue growth.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Q4 revenue growth guidance of 10-12% over Q4 2025.
Worry ifManagement lowers or withdraws the revenue growth guidance for Q4.
Why it matters: Better operational efficiency helps the company make more money. It can also help the company grow.
Supportive ifOperating expenses as a part of sales are lower than in Q4 2026.
Worry ifOperating expenses as a part of sales are higher than in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: A confirmed earnings beat would show strong performance and confidence in the business.
Supportive ifNext earnings report confirms the recent earnings beat announced on June 17.
Worry ifNext earnings report shows a miss compared to the previous earnings expectations.
Why it matters: A drop in gross profit margins may mean problems in managing costs during tough times.
Worry ifGross profit remains above $35.6M in 2026-Q4 despite cost pressures.
Less concerning ifGross profit drops below $35.6M in 2026-Q4.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends signal management's view on cash flow and financial health. Steady dividends show confidence.
Watch forManagement keeps a steady dividend of $0.13 per share.
Also watch forManagement cuts or suspends the dividend per share.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth continues and if new products are successful.
Watch forNet sales in Q1 2027 exceed $180 million, indicating strong demand.
Also watch forNet sales in Q1 2027 fall below $160 million, suggesting weaker demand.
Why it matters: This would confirm strong demand and effective execution in the firearm market.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 10% compared to the same quarter last year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 5% compared to the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: This shows that Smith & Wesson is growing and creating new products.
Supportive ifNew products account for more than 35% of total revenue in the next quarter.
Worry ifNew products contribute less than 30% of total revenue.
Why it matters: Strong growth in this segment would validate the Gemtech integration and market demand.
Supportive ifSuppressor revenue growth exceeds 50% year over year in the next reporting period.
Worry ifSuppressor revenue growth is below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: This shows the company cares about how it spends money and rewards shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company pays the $0.13 per share dividend as scheduled.
Worry ifThe company suspends or delays the dividend payment.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$130 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $296 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,639 loss on $10,000 · 26.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.