Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Latham Group, Inc. (SWIM)
NASDAQIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$7.92-3.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.28 → 0.27 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SWIM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve 12.7% adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA is targeted to grow 12.7%. | Broken | adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 10% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EBITDA increased by 18.1% to $45.3 million; Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 110 basis points to 24.8%, reflecting higher gross margin that more than offset higher sales and marketing expenses.” “This represents 11.7% net sales growth and 15.2% adjusted EBITDA growth at the midpoints,” Mr. Gadd concluded.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth business with execution risk, not yet a proven durable compounder, because it is loss-making and recent results have been mixed. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management’s stated priorities are on track overall, but the signal recently shifted from mixed to cautious.
SWIM is expensive versus peers, with a 3.12 premium measure, and the model’s confidence is low. The expectations gap is moderate, but the evidence does not show exactly what growth or earnings assumptions the market is pricing in; valuation fragility is assessed as low.
Near term, management’s 2026 sales and adjusted EBITDA goals remain on track, though second-quarter EBITDA growth was slightly below the pace implied by the full-year goal. Capital spending is mixed against the full-year plan, and the August earnings miss and lowered guidance weigh on the setup; the snapshot also notes a later raised full-year outlook. The company remains loss-making, with elevated risk and a sector backdrop that is a headwind.
A favorable shift depends on management reversing the lowered guidance and raising it next quarter, as well as continued sales growth and progress toward the EBITDA goal. Sector signals matter too: continued strong results and guidance from JCI, MAS, and CSL could support the industrial backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on management sustaining growth, improving earnings progress, and navigating an unsettled sector backdrop. The evidence is mixed, and the company’s loss-making status and expensive valuation remain important constraints. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain CAPEX within $42-$48 million in 2026 | Capital spending is controlled between $42 and $48 million. | Under Pressure | CAPEX exceeds $50 million or falls below $40 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $5.553M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $42-$48 million CAPEX. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20265,553,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Generate free cash flow near $112.5 million in 2026 | Free cash flow is expected near $112.5 million. | Intact | free cash flow falls below $100 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $47.95M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$112.5 million FCF. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202647,950,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve at least 9% revenue growth in 2026 | A primary condition in Latham Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=9% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 12.52% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=9% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202612.521077 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.27 → $0.27 · observed estimates
$0.63B → $0.65B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.27 | $628,705,510 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.27 | $628,705,510 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.27 | $628,705,510 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.27 | $628,703,410 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.27 | $628,705,510 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.27 | $628,703,410 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.27 | $628,705,510 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.27 | $628,705,510 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.27 | $628,703,410 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.27 | $628,705,510 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.27 | $628,703,410 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.27 | $628,703,410 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.27 | $628,705,510 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.27 | $628,703,410 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.28 | $645,694,481 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.28 | $643,979,440 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.28 | $643,979,440 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.28 | $645,694,481 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.28 | $646,592,680 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.28 | $645,694,481 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.28 | $645,694,481 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.28 | $645,694,481 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.28 | $645,694,481 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.28 | $645,694,481 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.28 | $645,694,481 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.28 | $646,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.27 | $644,426,011 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.27 | $644,426,011 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.27 | $644,426,011 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.27 | $644,426,011 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.27 | $644,426,011 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.27 | $644,426,011 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.27 | $644,426,011 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.27 | $644,426,011 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.27 | $644,426,011 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.27 | $644,426,011 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.27 | $644,426,011 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.27 | $644,426,011 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.27 | $644,426,011 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.27 | $644,426,011 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.27 | $644,426,011 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.27 | $644,426,011 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.27 | $644,426,011 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.27 | $644,426,011 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.27 | $644,426,011 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.27 | $644,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.27 | $644,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.27 | $644,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.27 | $644,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.27 | $644,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.27 | $644,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.27 | $644,592,678 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.27 | $646,445,719 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.27 | $646,445,719 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.