Latham Group, Inc. (SWIM)
NASDAQIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.10+2.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SWIM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 82.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 73.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SWIM — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-21
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 20, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), certain subsidiaries of Latham Group, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into the Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) and the Loan Guaranty, each by and among Latham Pool Products, Inc. (“Latham Pool Products”), as the borrower, Latham International Manufacturing Corp. (“LIMC”), as a guarantor, the other subsidiaries of LIMC party thereto as guarantors, the lenders and letter of credit issuers party thereto a…
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows Latham is serious about spending wisely. This impacts future growth.
Watch forCapital spending is between $40 million and $48 million.
Also watch forCapital spending is over $48 million or under $40 million.
Why it matters: Keeping CAPEX guidance shows Latham is investing smartly. This affects future growth and work.
Watch forCAPEX for 2026 is confirmed to be between $42M and $48M.
Also watch forCAPEX guidance is now outside the $42M to $48M range. This may mean problems.
Why it matters: Continued growth in Florida shows Latham's strategy is working in key markets. This can drive overall sales.
Supportive ifSales in Florida grew at a double-digit rate for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifSales in Florida decline or grow below 5% for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Meeting this growth target shows Latham is on track with its sales strategy. It confirms strong demand and market share gains.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales growth of at least 11.7% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth falls below 11.7% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$234 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $474 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,223 loss on $10,000 · 42.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows good cost control and efficiency. It helps the growth story.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA growth of at least 15.2% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth is below 15.2% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Sustained growth in these markets shows Latham's strategy is working. It indicates strong demand for their products.
Supportive ifSand States sales growth remains above 10% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifSand States sales growth falls below 10% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows Latham is managing its investments well. It reflects discipline in capital allocation.
Watch forSpending is between $40 million and $48 million for the whole year.
Also watch forSpending goes over $48 million for the whole year.