Latham Group, Inc. (SWIM)
NASDAQIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$7.92-3.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SWIM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 75.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 68.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SWIM — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-21
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 20, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), certain subsidiaries of Latham Group, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into the Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) and the Loan Guaranty, each by and among Latham Pool Products, Inc. (“Latham Pool Products”), as the borrower, Latham International Manufacturing Corp. (“LIMC”), as a guarantor, the other subsidiaries of LIMC party thereto as guarantors, the lenders and letter of credit issuers party thereto a…
Why it matters: Latham raised its 2026 sales range to $600–$620 million. Q3 sales will test whether growth can support that higher range.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales grow year over year, and management keeps its $600–$620 million 2026 sales range.
Worry ifQ3 net sales fall year over year, or management cuts its $600–$620 million sales range.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA grew 11.9%, below the 15.2% full-year growth goal. The next report will show if earnings growth is catching up.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA growth speeds up from Q2's 11.9%, and the company keeps its $110–$120 million 2026 range.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA growth stays at or below 11.9%, or management cuts its $110–$120 million range.
Why it matters: Latham entered a new credit agreement in August. Its terms and later filings can show whether borrowing costs or debt obligations changed.
Worry ifA filing shows higher borrowing costs, tighter debt limits, or more debt under the August 20 agreement.
Less concerning ifA filing shows no rise in borrowing costs or debt under the agreement.
Why it matters: Fast demand added $2.8 million of costs and cut Q2 gross margin by 140 basis points. Management said most costs may return in the second half.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin rises above Q2's 35.5%, as the $2.8 million ramp-up costs ease.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin stays at or below 35.5%, with no sign that ramp-up costs are easing.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$198 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $485 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,462 loss on $10,000 · 34.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Latham is adding sales staff and marketing in these markets. Continued growth would show those efforts are gaining traction.
Supportive ifThe next report says Sand States sales grew at a double-digit rate again.
Worry ifThe next report shows Sand States sales growth below 10% or a decline.