Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)
NYSEIndustrialsTools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$89.39-3.42%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $89.39. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $89 SWK trades at 19× p/e, below its 31× p/e peer median. Our $96 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits above the analyst range. Analysts target $82–$84. Note: our $96 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($82–$84). Not investment advice.
$82.00 – $84.00 (median $84.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-28
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 169% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly — years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $3.44/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $84.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $126.02 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $52.12 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $42.45 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $79.09 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $165.68 | 31.3 | 5.30 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $57.49 | 19.2 | 5.09 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $127.64 | 26.8 | 4.76 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $147.55 | 31.3 | 4.72 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $291.00 | 2.9 | 100.35 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $214.27 | 45.4 | 4.72 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $53.64 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $85.56 | 18.1 | 4.72 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $160.06 | 31.3 | 5.12 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $290.34 | 31.3 | 9.29 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $197.20 | 31.3 | 6.31 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $298.36 | 2.9 | 102.89 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $286.37 | 45.4 | 6.31 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $114.36 | 18.1 | 6.31 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $422.02 | 31.3 | 13.50 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $200.44 | 31.3 | 6.41 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $303.26 | 2.9 | 104.58 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $291.07 | 45.4 | 6.41 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $116.24 | 18.1 | 6.41 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.