Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$118.33+13.10%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.39 → 6.33 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SWK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS reaches at least $4.9 in 2026 | A primary condition in Stanley Black & Decker's published investment case. The stated target is >=4.9 USD per share. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $4.9 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $1.83 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=4.9 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20261.83 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical industrial business with a recovery element, rather than a clear durable compounder. The long-term thesis is supported by progress on margins and costs, while the current watch state reflects recent performance below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence describes SWK as cheap versus peers, with a justified priced-in tag and low fragility. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so the evidence does not point to unusually high market expectations; valuation has risen recently, though no share-price conclusion follows from that change.
Over the multi-year view, revenue and gross margin have improved, and the cost program has delivered substantial savings. Recent debt reduction and strong free cash flow support balance-sheet progress, though that priority is rated mixed. Near term, miss risk is described as low, but recent history of a deep miss and weak peer results remain cautions.
A key swing factor is whether management can sustain its recent guidance increase; reversing it would weaken credibility as well as the outlook. The sector backdrop also matters: continued strength or renewed weakness among industrial bellwethers could shape the support SWK receives from the sector.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on continued margin and cost progress, alongside debt reduction, while sector conditions and execution remain important uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow target is $700 million. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $500 million in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $698.2M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=500 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 29, 2026698,200,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 0.6% in next 12 months | A supporting condition in Stanley Black & Decker's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.6% YoY. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 0.6% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.23 → $6.33 · observed estimates
$15.45B → $15.42B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.23 | $15,453,812,417 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.23 | $15,453,812,417 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.23 | $15,453,812,417 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.23 | $15,453,812,417 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.24 | $15,511,227,802 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.24 | $15,511,227,802 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.29 | $15,523,776,975 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.35 | $15,476,990,110 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.35 | $15,476,990,110 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.36 | $15,480,918,681 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.36 | $15,480,918,681 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.36 | $15,480,918,681 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.36 | $15,480,918,681 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.36 | $15,480,918,681 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.38 | $15,473,348,317 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.38 | $15,473,348,317 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.38 | $15,473,348,317 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.38 | $15,473,348,317 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.38 | $15,473,348,317 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.38 | $15,473,348,317 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.38 | $15,473,348,317 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.38 | $15,473,348,317 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.38 | $15,473,348,317 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.38 | $15,473,348,317 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.38 | $15,473,348,317 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.38 | $15,478,820,615 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.38 | $15,478,820,615 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.38 | $15,478,820,615 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.38 | $15,478,820,615 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.38 | $15,478,820,615 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.38 | $15,478,820,615 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.38 | $15,478,820,615 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.38 | $15,478,820,615 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.38 | $15,478,820,615 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.38 | $15,478,820,615 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.38 | $15,478,820,615 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.38 | $15,478,820,615 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.38 | $15,478,820,615 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.38 | $15,478,820,615 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.38 | $15,478,820,615 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.38 | $15,478,820,615 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.38 | $15,478,820,615 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.38 | $15,478,823,286 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.38 | $15,478,823,286 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.38 | $15,478,823,286 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.38 | $15,478,823,286 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.38 | $15,478,823,286 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.39 | $15,477,434,965 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.38 | $15,465,012,472 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.38 | $15,465,012,472 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.38 | $15,465,012,472 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.38 | $15,465,012,472 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.38 | $15,465,012,472 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.38 | $15,465,012,472 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.38 | $15,465,012,472 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.38 | $15,465,012,472 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.38 | $15,465,030,158 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.38 | $15,465,030,158 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.38 | $15,465,030,158 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.38 | $15,465,030,158 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.38 | $15,465,030,158 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.38 | $15,465,030,158 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.38 | $15,465,030,158 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.38 | $15,465,030,158 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.38 | $15,465,030,158 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.38 | $15,465,030,158 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.38 | $15,465,030,158 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.38 | $15,478,815,872 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.38 | $15,478,815,872 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.39 | $15,478,815,872 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.39 | $15,478,815,872 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.39 | $15,478,815,872 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.39 | $15,478,815,872 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.36 | $15,421,187,301 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.36 | $15,412,508,008 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.36 | $15,412,508,008 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.36 | $15,412,508,008 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.36 | $15,412,508,008 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.36 | $15,412,508,008 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.36 | $15,412,508,008 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.36 | $15,412,508,008 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.35 | $15,407,717,654 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.33 | $15,407,717,654 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.33 | $15,407,717,654 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.33 | $15,411,271,397 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.33 | $15,411,271,397 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.34 | $15,418,176,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.34 | $15,418,176,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.33 | $15,418,419,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.33 | $15,418,419,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.33 | $15,418,419,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.33 | $15,418,419,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.33 | $15,418,419,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.33 | $15,418,419,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.33 | $15,418,419,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.33 | $15,418,419,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.33 | $15,418,419,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.33 | $15,418,419,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.33 | $15,418,419,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.33 | $15,418,419,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.33 | $15,418,419,328 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.33 | $15,418,419,328 | 9 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.