Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$97.36+0.89%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Recent financial performance freshly dropped to the bottom half of its industry.
Stanley Black & Decker aims for $5.7 EPS in 2026. Free cash flow target is $700 million. The company beat EPS estimates recently. Valuation is cheap compared to peers.
Revenue growth is weak, with recent declines. Free cash flow progress is limited. Management has volatile execution and soft guidance.
Price is about 7% below our fair value near $97. Analysts expect about 1% revenue growth. We see risk in meeting cash flow and EPS targets.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $4.9 in FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $500 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving profitability and managing costs. The current thesis state indicates a weakened outlook due to recent financial performance dropping relative to peers.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, suggesting that expectations are modest. SWK is considered cheap compared to its peers, but there is a slight expectations gap indicating that investors may anticipate some challenges ahead.
Management is on track with priorities like organic growth and cost reduction, but the mixed results on debt reduction suggest some uncertainty. The near-term risk of missing earnings is low, but historical performance shows potential for significant misses.
The future performance of SWK will depend on sector bellwethers like SNA, RBC, and LECO. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for SWK. Conversely, if they start to miss expectations, it could negatively impact SWK's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry. This change reflects a decline in the company's standing. Additionally, an insider sale by the Chief Accounting Officer raised concerns about confidence in the stock.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Focus on increasing free cash flow to meet or exceed guidance targets.
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 0.6% YoY next year
Overall, the next 1-3 years for SWK will be shaped by its ability to navigate sector challenges and execute on its management priorities. Not investment advice.