Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$97.36+0.89%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SWK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SWK — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-24
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. 364-Day Credit Agreement The description contained herein is a summary of certain material terms of the 364-Day Credit Agreement (as defined below) and is qualified in its entirety by reference to the 364-Day Credit Agreement attached as Exhibit 10.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. Unless otherwise defined herein, the capitalized terms used below are defined in the 364-Day Credit Agreement. On June 18, 2026, Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.…
Why it matters: Closing this sale will change debt levels. It will also affect future spending plans.
Supportive ifThe sale closes in the first half of 2026 and reduces debt significantly.
Worry ifThe sale is delayed or fails to close due to regulatory issues.
Why it matters: Higher EPS guidance means better financial results. It also shows that management is confident.
Supportive ifManagement raises 2026 EPS guidance above the current range of $4.60 to $5.45.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers EPS guidance.
Why it matters: Reducing debt would make the balance sheet stronger and help future growth.
Supportive ifDebt reduction reported above $1.7 billion in Q3.
Worry ifDebt reduction reported below $1.7 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: A change in board leadership could change the company's direction and management. This may affect how investors feel and the company's plans.
Watch forDebra Crew officially takes over as Chair of the Board on October 1, 2026.
Also watch forThe leadership change is delayed or not finished as expected.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$131 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $326 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,613 loss on $10,000 · 26.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: An increase shows better performance. It also shows confidence in future earnings.
Supportive ifManagement raises 2026 GAAP EPS guidance to above $5.45.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers EPS guidance to below $4.60.
Why it matters: Hitting this cash flow target is important for growth and paying off debt. It shows the company is financially healthy and runs well.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at or above $500 million for 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $500 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Tariffs can change pricing and profit margins. This could have a big impact.
Watch forNo material impact on guidance from Section 232 tariffs.
Also watch forManagement lowers guidance because of tariff effects. This shows a negative trend.
Why it matters: If retail sales volume recovers, it shows better market conditions and demand for Stanley's products. This can mean a positive change in performance.
Supportive ifRetail sales volume in North America is growing. This is better than in previous quarters.
Worry ifNorth America retail sales volume keeps falling or stays the same.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin may show problems with costs or pricing.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin reported below 33.0%.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin remains at or above 33.0%.
Why it matters: Maintaining or raising EPS guidance shows strong financial health and growth potential. It signals confidence in future earnings.
Supportive if2026 GAAP EPS guidance is above $4.60. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifGuidance is below $4.60. This suggests weaker earnings.
Why it matters: Retail sales trends will show if the company can recover from recent drops in volume.
Watch forNorth America retail sales show growth of at least 2% year over year.
Also watch forNorth America retail sales are falling more each year.
Why it matters: Updates on free cash flow targets will indicate if the company is improving its cash generation. This is crucial for financial health.
Watch forManagement raises free cash flow guidance above $700 million for 2026.
Also watch forManagement lowers free cash flow guidance below $500 million for 2026.
Why it matters: A rebound in sector growth could benefit Stanley Black & Decker. It indicates a healthier market.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again, nearing 10% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Better EPS is key for the company's growth. It shows how well the company is doing.
Supportive ifEPS increases by more than 5% compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifEPS decreases or remains flat compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Improving free cash flow is very important for management. It affects the company's financial health.
Supportive ifManagement says free cash flow will increase a lot in the next earnings report.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains stagnant or declines in future reports.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can improve EPS and free cash flow as planned.
Watch forQ2 EPS is higher than what analysts expected. This shows the company is making more money.
Also watch forQ2 EPS is lower than analyst expectations. This shows the company is still having problems.
Why it matters: Closing this sale will confirm management's focus on core brands and growth areas. It is key for future capital allocation.
Supportive ifThe transaction closes and is reported in a press release or 8-K.
Worry ifThe sale is delayed or fails to close due to regulatory issues.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows strong demand. It also shows management is doing well.
Supportive ifQ3 organic revenue growth was over 3%.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth was below 1%.
Why it matters: Reducing debt will make the balance sheet stronger. It will help future growth.
Supportive ifDebt reduced by an additional $500 million or more in Q3.
Worry ifDebt remains unchanged or increases in Q3.