Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-27 · fmp
Synaptics (SYNA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$117.49+0.07%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.50 → 6.50 EPS · FY ending Jun 27, 2028 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SYNA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete acquisition by onsemi and integrate operations by mid-2027 | The $7 billion acquisition by onsemi could boost growth and market reach. | Intact | Acquisition delayed beyond mid-2027 or integration fails | Qualitative: A&R Merger Agreement signed 2026-10-01 Onsemi revised deal to all-cash in Oct 2026; A&R Merger Agreement executed; stock up 15.1% over 63 days. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk growth and integration story, rather than a proven durable compounder, because recent financial performance is weak and the company is loss-making on the stated earnings-quality measure. The long-term thesis is on watch: Core IoT growth and better operating margins are positive, while the onsemi transaction and management volatility remain important uncertainties.
SYNA is characterized as cheap versus peers, and the valuation measure has fallen notably. The expectations gap is close to neutral, while the priced-in assessment says current pricing is justified and fragility is low. That leaves limited evidence of a large gap between market expectations and the current thesis.
Near term, consecutive earnings misses and recent results below the industry cohort leave execution at risk, even though the estimated miss probability is described as low. Over the multi-year view, Core IoT sales grew 43% in fiscal 2026, and operating margin improved to 20% in the fourth quarter; gross margin was stable. The onsemi deal is progressing but remains to be completed, with closing expected by mid-2027.
A guidance cut on the next call would add to concern about execution, while sustained Core IoT growth and further margin progress would support the long-term thesis. The acquisition’s closing and integration are key swing factors. In the near term, lower rates or stabilization among major technology companies could support the sector backdrop, but the evidence does not establish how lasting those effects would be.
For the next 1 to 3 years, SYNA combines real Core IoT and margin progress with weak recent performance, elevated risk, and acquisition uncertainty. The long-term thesis remains on watch and depends on continued execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We are excited about the pending merger with onsemi, which we believe brings together highly complementary product portfolios and benefits from onsemi's manufacturing scale, global customer relationships, and extensive distribution network, anticipated to expand market opportunities, accelerate growth, and deliver greater value to customers and shareholders."” ““The all-cash transaction delivers higher value to our shareholders through lower total cost consideration, and we now expect the transaction to be immediately accretive to non-GAAP EPS upon closing.”
Operating cash flow improves from $21.8M in Q3 | A supporting condition in Synaptics's published investment case. The stated target is Operating cash flow >= $40M. | Broken | Operating cash flow stays below $20M next two quarters | Cash from operations: $67.6M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Operating cash flow >= $40M. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 10, 202667,600,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Core IoT revenue growth over 11% in FY 2026 | Synaptics grows Core IoT revenue over 40% in fiscal 2026. | Intact | Core IoT revenue growth falls below 11% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Based on the mid-point of our fourth quarter outlook, we expect full year fiscal 2026 Core IoT revenue to grow more than 40% year-over-year to over $385 million.” “During the quarter, we expanded customer engagements, increased design wins, and continued to build our pipeline across key growth markets, including Physical AI and robotics.” Revenue was $308.000 million in 2026-Q4. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Gross profit margin near 46% next quarter | Profit margins improve to about 46% next quarter. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 44% next quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We remain focused on disciplined execution.” “Business Outlook Ken Rizvi, the Company's Chief Financial Officer, added, “We remain focused on disciplined execution and have delivered double-digit year-over-year revenue growth for the fifth consecutive quarter.” Gross profit was $145.800 million in 2026-Q4. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Total revenue growth near 10% YoY | A supporting condition in Synaptics's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY growth. | Under Pressure | Revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.56 → $6.50 · observed estimates
$1.46B → $1.43B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | $6.56 | $1,463,292,826 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.56 | $1,463,292,826 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.56 | $1,463,292,826 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.56 | $1,463,292,826 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.56 | $1,463,292,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.56 | $1,463,292,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.56 | $1,463,292,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.56 | $1,463,292,826 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.58 | $1,467,212,559 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.58 | $1,467,156,876 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.50 | $1,458,193,180 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.50 | $1,458,193,180 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.50 | $1,458,193,180 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.50 | $1,458,193,180 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.50 | $1,458,193,180 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.50 | $1,458,193,180 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.44 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.50 | $1,430,166,475 | 4 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.