Synaptics (SYNA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$98.99+1.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SYNA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SYNA — divestiture
Dated 2026-08-21
and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any registration document or other document filed by the Company. Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This communication relates to a proposed business combination transaction between Synaptics Incorporated and ON Semiconductor Corporation. This communication i…
Why it matters: News on the acquisition will show the company's plans and success.
Watch forNews of approvals or good integration steps.
Also watch forThere may be delays or problems in getting the acquisition. This could be due to regulatory issues.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows good execution. It shows strong demand in the market.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue reaches or exceeds $305 million.
Worry ifQ4 revenue falls below $295 million.
Why it matters: Earnings per share shows how profitable a company is. A miss may mean ongoing problems.
Worry ifReported EPS for Q4 is below $1.20.
Less concerning ifReported EPS for Q4 is at or above $1.20.
Why it matters: Higher gross margins mean better cost control and pricing power. This helps profits.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 46% in Q4, indicating strong cost control.
Worry ifGross margin was below 44%. This hints at possible cost problems.
Why it matters: Management aims for over 40% growth in Core IoT revenue for FY 2026. This growth is key for long-term success.
Supportive ifCore IoT revenue exceeds $385 million for FY 2026, confirming strong growth.
Worry ifCore IoT revenue growth is below 40% year-over-year. This shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: More cash flow means better operational efficiency. It also shows better financial health.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow is above $30 million. This shows better cash generation.
Worry ifOperating cash flow drops again. This shows ongoing problems in operations.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how the company is doing. It can change how people feel about the stock.
Watch forThe earnings report shows good news in revenue or profit margins.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows bad news in revenue or profit margins.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps fund growth. It shows the company is financially healthy.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow exceeds $67 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating cash flow drops below $67 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: More design wins would prove Synaptics' plan in new markets. This could help future growth.
Supportive ifThey announced new design wins in Physical AI and robotics.
Worry ifNo new design wins announced in Physical AI and robotics.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth indicates the company's market position and demand for its products. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue growth exceeds 10% YoY in Q4 2026.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 5% YoY in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin may show higher costs or pricing issues. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 45% for Q4.
Less concerning ifGross margin reported at or above 45% for Q4.
Why it matters: Sustaining this growth is crucial for overall revenue health. It shows demand for Synaptics' products.
Supportive ifCore IoT product sales grow over 40% year-over-year in the next quarter.
Worry ifCore IoT product sales fall below 30% year-over-year growth.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost management. This is important for financial health.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP gross margin exceeds 54% in the next quarter.
Worry ifNon-GAAP gross margin drops below 53% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The merger is key for Synaptics' growth and market expansion. It could enhance product offerings and customer engagement.
Supportive ifThe merger closes by mid-2027 with all required approvals obtained.
Worry ifThe merger does not close. This is due to regulatory or shareholder problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$300 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $564 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,652 loss on $10,000 · 36.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.