Talos Energy, Inc. (TALO)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.84-2.60%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TALO
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $17 TALO trades at 1.4× p/s, below its 2.0× p/s peer median. Our $21 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: its earnings are too depressed to value on P/E (we anchor on sales instead) and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 19% below a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 8% growth — below our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $18.10 | 5.3 | 4.18 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $23.84 | 12.3 | 1.94 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $8.66 | 9.8 | 0.89 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $23.24 | 2.0 | 11.64 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $36.26 |
| 12.3 |
| 2.96 |
| Hist. CAGR(prov.) |
| medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $10.01 | 9.8 | 1.02 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $29.04 | 2.0 | 14.54 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $47.95 | 12.3 | 3.91 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $11.57 | 9.8 | 1.18 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $33.56 | 2.0 | 16.81 | Analyst | medium |