Talos Energy, Inc. (TALO)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.84-2.60%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TALO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TALO — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-27
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 22, 2026, contemporaneously with entry into the Farm-Out Agreement (as defined below), Talos Energy Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Talos”), Talos Production Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Talos (“Talos Production”), and certain other direct and indirect subsidiaries of Talos and Talos Production entered into the Second Amendment to the Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Second Amendment,” and the Amend…
Why it matters: New guidance would show how the new assets affect Talos's production.
Supportive ifTalos raises its production guidance to above 66 MBo/d after the deal.
Worry ifProduction guidance stays the same or goes down after the deal.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it may signal a positive shift in the energy sector.
Watch forEnergy sector revenue growth is above 6% in the next quarterly data release.
Also watch forEnergy sector revenue growth is below 6% in the next quarterly data release.
Why it matters: If energy sector revenue growth speeds up, it could help Talos improve its own performance. This is important for the company's outlook.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is over 6% year over year. This shows a recovery.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is under 6% year over year. This shows ongoing weakness.
Why it matters: Good production from Monument would show Talos's efficiency. It supports their growth plan.
Supportive ifFirst oil production from Monument occurs by late 2026 as planned.
Worry ifProduction from Monument is delayed beyond late 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show production and financial health.
Watch forEarnings report shows better production and fewer losses than before.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows continued losses. Production levels remain steady.
Why it matters: A decision to invest in Block 29 would confirm Talos's commitment to growth in Mexico. It could lead to significant resource development.
Supportive ifTalos will make a final investment decision for Block 29 in 2027.
Worry ifTalos delays or cancels the investment decision for Block 29.
Why it matters: Good results could boost Talos's deepwater projects and future output.
Supportive ifResults from the Daenerys well will come out by the end of 2026. They will confirm resource potential.
Worry ifResults from the well show less resource potential than expected. There may be delays in reporting.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback can show how much management trusts the company.
Watch forManagement says they will increase the share buyback plan to over $200 million.
Also watch forManagement stops or cuts back the share buyback program.
Why it matters: Keeping CAPEX in this range shows financial discipline. This can help stabilize cash flow.
Supportive ifCAPEX reported at $500M or higher but not exceeding $550M in the next earnings report.
Worry ifCAPEX reported above $550M in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Successful completion of the CPN well could add significant production and cash flow.
Supportive ifFirst production from the CPN well occurs as expected in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCPN well completion is delayed past Q3 2026.
Why it matters: An update will show how the acquisition affects Talos's production plans.
Watch forProduction guidance for Q2 is raised above the current target of 62-66 MBo/d.
Also watch forProduction guidance for Q2 is lowered below the current target of 62-66 MBo/d.
Why it matters: New guidance will show how the new assets affect Talos's production plans.
Watch forManagement will update production guidance to show how the new assets help after the deal.
Also watch forNo update to production guidance after the deal is done.
Why it matters: Closing this deal would increase Talos's production and reserves. This supports growth.
Supportive ifThe deal closes by the end of 2026 if there are no regulatory delays.
Worry ifThe deal faces big regulatory problems or is delayed past 2026.
Why it matters: Starting buybacks again would show confidence in cash flow and spending plans.
Supportive ifTalos announces share buybacks after the blackout period.
Worry ifNo share buybacks happen or management says they will pause the program.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$206 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $541 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,218 loss on $10,000 · 22.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.