Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Talos Energy, Inc. (TALO)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.61-3.04%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.05 → 1.37 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TALO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures between $500 million and $550 million in 2026 | It plans to spend $500 to $550 million on capital this year. | Intact | CAPEX exceeds $550 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $101.615M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $500M to $550M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026101,615,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk energy producer with an acquisition-led growth plan, rather than a proven durable compounder. The thesis is on watch: production and acquisition priorities are progressing, but recent financial performance remains weak and earnings are loss-making.
TALO is described as cheap versus peers, and the pricing signal is marked justified rather than fragile. The evidence does not indicate that the market is assuming a strong turnaround; however, the expectations gap is negative, and valuation-model confidence is medium.
Near term, production growth and the completed deepwater acquisition support management’s stated priorities. Production rose from 63.8 MBo/d in Q1 2026 to 68.6 MBo/d in Q2, above guidance, and full-year guidance was raised. Results remain weak, with erratic earnings surprises trending down, so a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
Over the next few quarters, execution depends on sustaining production growth and turning the expanded asset base into stronger financial performance. Sector conditions are another swing factor: continued strength from COP, EOG, and OXY could support the energy backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from them could weaken it. A TALO guidance cut is a key near-term risk.
For the 1-3 year view, TALO has visible operational and acquisition progress, but loss-making results, weak recent performance, and elevated risk leave the long-term thesis dependent on execution and sector support. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Talos is buying Gulf of America deepwater assets for about $450 to $500 million. |
| Intact |
| Acquisition fails to close by end of 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full-year 2026 oil production of 62 to 66 thousand barrels per day | Talos aims to produce 62 to 66 thousand barrels daily in 2026. | Improving | production falls below 62 MBo/d in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Return capital via share buybacks up to 50% of free cash flow | The company buys back shares using up to half its free cash flow. | Intact | Share repurchases stop or fall well below 50% of free cash flow | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.04 → $1.37 · observed estimates
$2.06B → $2.36B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.04 | $2,060,663,451 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.03 | $1,919,830,770 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.04 | $2,060,663,451 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.04 | $2,060,663,451 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.03 | $1,919,830,770 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.04 | $2,060,663,451 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.04 | $2,060,663,451 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.16 | $2,086,663,451 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.16 | $2,086,663,451 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.10 | $1,923,405,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.16 | $2,086,663,451 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.10 | $1,923,405,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.10 | $1,923,405,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.16 | $2,086,663,451 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.32 | $2,132,571,080 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.32 | $2,132,571,080 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.51 | $2,128,323,271 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.51 | $2,128,323,271 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.13 | $2,294,459,360 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.51 | $2,128,323,271 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.51 | $2,128,323,271 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.51 | $2,128,323,271 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.51 | $2,128,323,271 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.51 | $2,128,323,271 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.51 | $2,128,323,271 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.77 | $2,173,460,601 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.77 | $2,173,460,601 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.77 | $2,173,460,601 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.77 | $2,173,460,601 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.77 | $2,173,460,601 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.77 | $2,173,460,601 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.77 | $2,178,551,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.77 | $2,178,551,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.77 | $2,178,551,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.77 | $2,178,551,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.77 | $2,178,551,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.77 | $2,178,551,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.77 | $2,178,551,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.77 | $2,178,551,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.77 | $2,178,551,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.77 | $2,178,551,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.77 | $2,178,551,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.79 | $2,180,287,601 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.79 | $2,180,287,601 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.79 | $2,180,287,601 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.79 | $2,180,287,601 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.79 | $2,180,287,601 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.79 | $2,180,287,601 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.88 | $2,198,742,147 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.88 | $2,198,742,147 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.88 | $2,198,742,147 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.88 | $2,198,742,147 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.97 | $2,214,196,692 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.97 | $2,214,196,692 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.97 | $2,214,196,692 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.97 | $2,214,196,692 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.97 | $2,214,196,692 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.97 | $2,214,196,692 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.97 | $2,214,196,692 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.97 | $2,214,196,692 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.97 | $2,214,196,692 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.97 | $2,214,196,692 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.97 | $2,214,196,692 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.97 | $2,214,196,692 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.97 | $2,214,196,692 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.97 | $2,214,196,692 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.97 | $2,214,196,692 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.97 | $2,214,196,692 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.97 | $2,214,196,692 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.97 | $2,214,196,692 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.05 | $2,214,874,083 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.05 | $2,214,874,083 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.05 | $2,214,874,083 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.05 | $2,214,874,083 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.05 | $2,214,874,083 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.05 | $2,214,874,083 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.05 | $2,214,874,083 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.05 | $2,214,874,083 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.05 | $2,214,874,083 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.05 | $2,214,874,083 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.05 | $2,214,874,083 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.13 | $2,214,874,083 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.38 | $2,275,748,370 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.38 | $2,275,748,370 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.29 | $2,283,202,915 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.29 | $2,283,202,915 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.29 | $2,317,839,279 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.28 | $2,317,384,733 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.28 | $2,317,384,733 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.28 | $2,317,384,733 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.28 | $2,317,384,733 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.28 | $2,317,384,733 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.28 | $2,317,384,733 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.28 | $2,317,384,733 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.37 | $2,355,607,097 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.37 | $2,355,607,097 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.37 | $2,355,607,097 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.37 | $2,355,607,097 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.37 | $2,355,607,097 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.37 | $2,355,607,097 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.37 | $2,355,607,097 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.37 | $2,355,607,097 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.