Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP)
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-05
$42.23-2.11%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TAP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -31.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -12.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TAP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Attached as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of a news release of Molson Coors Beverage Company (the "Company"), dated November 5, 2026, reporting the Company's financial results for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2026. Such information including the Exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under…
Why it matters: Buybacks totaled $211 million in the first half, down from $306.8 million a year earlier. Later updates will show how the company balances buybacks with debt and business spending.
Watch forA later filing reports second-half buybacks that bring full-year spending to at least $306.8 million.
Also watch forA later filing reports full-year buybacks below $211 million, or says buybacks were paused.
Why it matters: U.S. brand volume fell 3.5% in Q1, while Americas brand volume fell 5.3% in Q2. A smaller decline would ease pressure from lost volume.
Watch forThe next reported U.S. brand volume change is flat or positive year over year.
Also watch forThe next reported U.S. brand volume decline is 3.5% or worse year over year.
Why it matters: Monaco Cocktails joined Molson Coors in Q2. Sales growth would show whether the deal is adding to its beyond-beer business.
Supportive ifA company report names Monaco Cocktails. It shows sales or volume above its first-quarter level as part of Molson Coors.
Worry ifA company report says Monaco Cocktails sales or volume fell from its first quarter as part of Molson Coors.
Why it matters: Midwest Premium pricing added about $40 million in Q2 costs. Cost savings partly offset inflation, but underlying cost per hectoliter still rose 6.3%.
Watch forA later report says underlying COGS per hectoliter rose less than 6.3% year over year. It names cost savings as an offset.
Also watch forUnderlying COGS per hectoliter rises 6.3% or more year over year, and cost savings do not offset the increase.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$123 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $330 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,321 loss on $10,000 · 33.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management reaffirmed full-year guidance after Q2 sales fell 3.3%. Q3 results will show whether the business is tracking that plan.
Watch forOn November 5, Molson Coors confirms its full-year guidance. Q3 net sales exceed the same quarter last year.
Also watch forOn November 5, Molson Coors cuts full-year guidance or reports Q3 net sales down year over year.